基于空间计量方法的城镇化动力实证研究——以环洞庭湖区域为例

在参考Cobb-Douglas生产函数构建的城镇化动力理论模型的基础上,使用空间计量方法对2000～2009年环洞庭湖区域城镇化动力进行了实证研究,结果显示:区域经济发展总体水平对城镇化有显著的正向促进作用,但呈逐年下降趋势;固定资产投资及流通产业发展对城镇化的推动作用较大,但仍不稳定;人力资本投资对洞庭湖区域城镇化的作用尚不显著。因此,要改变当前环洞庭湖区域城镇化动力不充足、不稳定的问题和促进湖区从"粗放城镇化"向"新型城镇化"转换,就必须主动对接"长株潭"城市群、深化分工和夯实产业基础、加大固定资产投资、充分发挥流通产业的先导作用并高度重视人力资本积累。

An Empirical Research of Urbanization Dynamics Based on Spatial Econometric Method: Case Study of Dongtinghu Regions

Learning from Cobb-Douglas production function,a theoretical model of urbanization dynamics is established.Using the data from Dongtinghu regions from 2000 to 2009,their urbanization dynamics has been tested by spatial econometric method.The Results show that regional economic development level significantly promotes the urbanization level but this trend gradually drops down.And both investment in fixed assets and circulation industry development greatly drive urbanization but no much stable.Moreover,intelligent capital’s promotion to urbanization is not significant yet.To remove the unstability and insufficiency of the urbanization dynamics,it is neccessary to joint the "Chang-zhu-Tan" urban agglomeration,to deepen divistion of labor,to increase the fixed assets investment,to make full use of circulation industry’s leading role and attach importance of intelligence capital accumulation.