投入品对我国农业生产影响的实证分析

采用回归分析法对1979～2009年影响我国农业产值变化的主要投入品要素进行分析,结果发现:农用化肥使用量对我国农业总产值的变化有显著的贡献,农用机械总动力对我国农业总产值的变化有正的但不显著的影响,农药使用量在短期而言可促进农业产值增加,但从长期看,农药的使用会导致农业产值下降,相反,农用塑料薄膜施用量对我国长期均衡农业生产总值则有显著的负的影响。

An Empirical Study on the Impacts of Inputs on the Agricultural Production

The impacts of inputs on the agricultural production from 1979 to 2009 have been analyzed. The results show that the amount of fertilizer is significantly and positively related with the gross agriculture production, and the total power of agricultural machinery is positively but not significantly related with the gross agriculture production. It is also found that the use of pesticide can stimulate the agriculture output in a short term, however, it will cause to the reduction of agriculture output in the long term. Besides, the amount of agricultural plastic film has a significantly negative impact on the long run equilibrium of agricultural production.