异质性通胀预期对通货膨胀形成机制的动态影响-基于混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线的实证分析

通过对异质性通胀预期与实际通货膨胀动态关系的实证研究,证实了不同微观经济主体的预期都会对实际通货膨胀产生影响,并且适应性预期所占比例远远大于理性预期.更进一步,适应性预期与理性预期对实际通货膨胀的影响力不同,理性预期对实际通货膨胀的即期影响力大于适应性预期,但是影响的持久性却小于理性预期.所以央行在调控通货膨胀的时候,应关注微观经济体的通胀预期异质性,适时引导各种异质性预期,从而锚定微观经济体的预期,使得货币政策能够顺利实施.

The Dynamic Impact of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations on the Mechanism of Inflation Formation An Empirical Analysis Based on Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve

Through the empirical research on the relationship between heterogeneous inflationary expectation and actual inflation,it is confirmed that the different microeconomic subjects all have impacts on the actual inflation.The proportion of adaptive expectation in the microeconomics is far greater than that of rational expectation.The effect of adaptive expectation and rational expectation on actual inflation is different.The impact of adaptive expectation on actual inflation is greater than that of rational.The persistence of the effect is also greater than the rational expectation.Therefore,the central bank should pay attention to the microeconomics' heterogeneity of inflation expectations,so as to anchor the economy's expectations,and make the smooth implementation of monetary policy.