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机动车辆保险承保周期的回归模型分析
引用本文:张琳,朱园丽.机动车辆保险承保周期的回归模型分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009,30(2).
作者姓名:张琳  朱园丽
作者单位:1. 湖南大学金融学院,湖南,长沙,410079
2. 保险职业学院商业保险系,湖南,长沙,410114
摘    要:通过构造一个包含多个变量的回归模型来检验各种因素对保费变动的影响,结果表明:滞后损失率和滞后保费增长率对当期保费增长影响非常显著;滞后损失增长率对当期保费增长率影响不显著;在我国机动车辆保险中,宏观经济因素包括利率和GDP对保费增长率的影响很小.因此,我国机动车辆保险承保周期存在原因较为符合承保能力限制假说.

关 键 词:机动车辆保险  承保周期  保险市场

The Regression Model Analysis of the U/W Cycle in Automobile Insurance
ZHANG Lin,ZHU Yuan-li.The Regression Model Analysis of the U/W Cycle in Automobile Insurance[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2009,30(2).
Authors:ZHANG Lin  ZHU Yuan-li
Institution:1.College of Finance;Hunan University;Changsha;Hunan 410079;2.Commercial Insurance Department;Insurance Professional College;Hunan 410114;China
Abstract:This paper constructs a multi factor regression model to test the causes of changing insurance premium.The conclusions show that hysteresis loss rate variables and lagged premium growth variables have significant influence on the current premium growth,while hysteresis loss of the growth rate has insignificant impact on the current premium growth rate variable.To Chinese automobile insurance,Macro-economic factors including interest rate and GDP have little effect on growth rate of premium.So the Capacity C...
Keywords:Automobile Insurance  Underwriting Cycle  Insurance Market  
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