通货膨胀、住房所有者资本成本与住房需求——中国35个大中城市面板数据的实证分析

通过对我国35个大中城市的实证研究表明,通货膨胀将降低购房需求。这是因为前期住房所有权成本的增加和收入约束的共同作用使得通货膨胀对住房需求产生了不利影响。进一步对住房所有权成本的主要构成成分进行分析,构成住房所有权成本的资产升值和还款负担对住房需求的影响力存在差异,由治理通货膨胀引起的加息对住房需求带来负面影响要大于资产升值的积极效应,从而印证了在以个人住房贷款为购房资金主要来源的条件下,通货膨胀会降低住房的有效需求,对房地产市场产生抑制作用。

Inflation, User Cost of Capital and the Demand for Housing: Based on Inter-provincial Panel Data of 35 Large and Medium Cities in China

From the empirical test by 35 large and medium cities in China,the results show that inflation reduce the demand for housing.The increase of the user cost of capital for own-occupied house and the relative reduction in income are the main reasons.Further research discloses that the asset appreciation due to inflation has positive effects on housing demand,and the increase of mortgage has negative effects on housing demand,however,the negative effects are much bigger,which means inflation do reduce the demand for housing when the main capital source in the housing market is personal housing mortgage loan.