承销业务利益对证券分析师盈利预测准确性影响研究

证券分析师作为证券市场信息的挖掘者和传播者,在证券市场上扮演着双重角色。由于受到所属证券公司的承销业务利益的影响,承销商分析师可能会因为缺乏独立性而使盈利预测产生偏差。按分析师所属的券商是否是预测对象的承销商而把分析师分为两组,对比研究其盈利预测的准确性,结果发现承销商分析师的盈利预测比非承销商分析师更偏向乐观,且预测误差更大。说明承销商分析师在面临承销业务所导致的利益冲突时,并不能保持独立性。

Research on the Influence on the Accuracy of Earning Forecasts From Interest of Underwriting

Securities analysts have played a dual role through gathering accounting information and providing investment information in the securities market.Because of lack independence,their analysis will produce errors when analysts consider the interest of underwriters.In this paper,the analysts are divided into two groups to compare the accuracy of earning forecasts.It is found that the analysts from underwriters are tend to give more optimistic forecast with bigger deviation.The results show that uderwriters’ analysts do no maintain their independence.