土地财政收入、生产性支出和经济增长研究——基于省际面板数据的非线性阈值分析

构建含土地财政收入的内生经济增长模型，从理论上证明土地财政收入对经济增长存在非线性影响，而且会因财政支出结构的变化而对经济增长产生不同的非线性影响。并以2000-2017年省级面板数据对上述假说进行实证检验。结果显示：在东部和西部地区，土地财政收入相对GDP的占比对经济增长确实先有促进作用，后出现抑制作用，呈现出较明显的倒“U”形特征。同时，土地财政收入对经济增长的影响会因财政支出结构的变化而出现阈值效应，过高的生产性支出比重将减弱土地财政收入对经济增长的促进作用。

Land Revenue, Productive Expenditure and Economic Growth

Based on the model of fiscal expenditure endogenous economic growth, this paper constructs a model of economic growth with land revenue. The theory proves that land revenue has a nonlinear effect on economic growth. The impact of land revenue on local economic growth will vary with the structure of fiscal expenditure. Theoretical hypotheses are tested with China''s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2017. The empirical results show that in the middle and western regions, the land revenue will promote economic growth, but when the land revenue is higher than a certain percentage, there will be inhibitory effect, showing a more obvious inverted U-shaped features. Because of the change of productive expenditure structure, the threshold effect of land revenue on economic growth will appear. The local government should control all kinds of productive expenditure at a reasonable level according to their own economic development. When the proportion of productive expenditure is too high, the excessive pursuit of land revenue will have a negative effect on economic growth.