新兴七国出口多样化的变迁及其经济绩效

采用修正的 Feenstra 方法度量1993~2009年 E7国家相对于美国的出口产品多样化样本期间中国出口多样化在波动中略有上升，而俄罗斯的多样化水平呈明显下降趋势，其他五国出口多样化呈总体上升趋势。进一步探讨出口产品多样化影响经济增长的机制，建立计量模型进行实证分析结果证实：E7国家出口多样化显著促进了经济增长，中、低技术制成品多样化对经济增长的影响作用要大于高技术产品多样化的作用；出口多样化与出口技术溢出之间存在互补性，出口多样化水平的提升促进了出口溢出。

The Change of Export Variety and Economic Performance: Evidences from the E7 Countries

Using the modified Feenstra's method,this paper measures the general export vari-ety and export varieties of industries with different technology level for E7 countries relative to the United States from 1 993 to 2009.China's export variety shows a slightly rising trend with some fluctuations,while Russia's export variety goes on a significantly downward trend and the export varieties of other five countries among E7 group exhibit an upward trend during the sample period.After discussing the mechanism through which export variety affects economic growth, this paper implements the empirical analysis.The results support the significantly positive effect of export variety on economic growth,and export variety of middle and low-technology industry shows a larger effect on economic growth than export variety of high-technology industries. There exists the complementarity between the export variety and technology spillovers of export.