人民币实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构影响的实证分析

本文尝试从理论上给出了实际汇率变动对产业结构调整的三种传导途径,并从有效汇率的角度出发,通过协整模型、Granger因果检验和脉冲响应的方法对实际有效汇率对我国产业、就业结构的影响进行了实证分析.结果表明,人民币实际有效汇率的升值提升了我国第三产业的比重并增加了该产业就业人数,在一定程度上促进了农村劳动力的转移,同时相应地对第二产业的就业造成了负面影响.总体上来看,人民币有效汇率的上升将有助于长期改善我国的产业结构,但短期会造成一定的就业压力.

The Empirical Analysis of the Influence of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Our Country's Industrial Structure and Employment

This paper attempts to present three transmission channels theoretically through which the variation of real exchange rate can adjust industrial structure,and from the perspective of effective exchange rate,conducts empirical analysis of the influence of real effective exchange rate on our country's industrial structure and employment,adopting co-integration model,Granger causality test,and impulse response method.It turns out that real effective exchange rate appreciation while exercising negative effects ...