中国区域税收增长变动的因素分解分析——基于LMDI分解方法

经济新常态背景下，税收增速下滑，探索税收新的增长点就显得非常必要。运用 LMDI 指数分解方法，从宏观角度分解出税收增长的影响因素，并以2005~2012年的省际数据为基础，测算出我国区域税收增长的宏观因素影响效应值。研究发现：经济产出因素和产业税负因素是推动区域税收增长主要动因，不过前者累计贡献度更大；产业结构因素和税收结构因素的效应累计贡献度则产生了区域分化；研究进一步发现，各因素效应变动的深层次原因也呈现出地区性差异。

Factor Decomposition Analysis of Regional Tax Growth in China: Based on The LMDI Decomposition Method

Under the background of the economic new norm,it is very necessary to explore new tax growth points because of decline in tax growth.The paper decomposes the macro influ-ence factors of tax growth using LMDI index decomposition method,and measure their effect val-ue on the basis of the provincial data from 2005 to 2012.The study finds economic output factor and industrial tax burden factor are the most important motive for tax growth;however,the cu-mulative contribution of the former is greater;and the contribution of the cumulative effect with industrial structure factor and tax structure factor produces regional differentiation.The study further discovers that the deep-seated reasons for the change resulting from the effect of various factors also show regional differences.