| 基于ARMA模型的我国国内旅游客源预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 关华,赵黎明.基于ARMA模型的我国国内旅游客源预测[J].财经理论与实践,2011,32(3):114-118. |
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| 作者姓名： | 关华 赵黎明 |
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| 作者单位： | 天津大学管理学院;河北经贸大学期刊编辑部; |
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| 摘 要： | 运用ARMA(1,2)模型对我国1994~2009年游客人数进行分析并选取2004~2007年的游客人数作为原始数据建模,同时依据该模型计算2007~2009年我国的游客人数,并对2010~2012年的国内旅游人数进行预测,结果显示:预测结果与实际情况拟合得很好,游客数量会持续上升。旅游管理部门应根据实际情况和预测结果合理地安排旅游景点的建筑服务设施,提高旅游产品的质量与旅游接待水平,促进旅游业的健康发展。
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| 关 键 词： | ARMA 旅游 预测 |
Prediction about Our Domestic Tourism Source Based on the ARMA Model |
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| GUAN Hu,ZHAO Li-ming.Prediction about Our Domestic Tourism Source Based on the ARMA Model[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2011,32(3):114-118. |
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| Authors: | GUAN Hu ZHAO Li-ming |
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| Institution: | GUAN Hua1,2,ZHAO Li-ming1 (1.Management School,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China,2.Hebei University of Economics and Business,Shijazhuang Hebei 050061) |
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| Abstract: | After the examination by applying ARMA(1,2) Model to analyze the tourist number from 1994 to 2009,a model has been built by the tourist number from 2004 to 2007.Then the tourist population from 2007 to 2009 and 2010 to 2012 are calculated by the model.The results show that the predicted result matches the reality well,and the number of tourist will keep increasing.The tourism administration should build more service facility,improve the quality of tourism products and improve the tourism service in order to... |
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| Keywords: | ARMA Tourism Prediction |
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