国际投机资本冲击风险预警指标体系的构建

在全球金融危机的背景下,国际投机资本的频繁流动严重影响了我国经济的稳定性.通过选取1996～2007年能够反映我国经济面临风险的12个指标,确定各自的权重,用KLR信号分析法实证论述近年来我国的风险变化情况,找出影响风险变化的重要指标.研究发现,国际投机资本这一潜在的危险正在加重,因此,可以在利用风险预警机制的同时加强对跨境资本流动的监管,以保证国民经济的均衡发展.

Index System of Risk Prediction System of International Speculative Capital

Going on with the global financial crisis,our economy is impacted badly by the frequent flow of the international speculative capital.The paper chooses 12 indexes that can represent the risk we facing from 1996 to 2007,gives its respective weight,and uses the method of KLR to conclude the changes in recent years and its influential factors.We find that this potential risk the international speculative capital has brought has been more and more serious.And we must take full use of the prediction system and s...