持久性减税对地方财政可持续性的动态效应研究

持久性减税可能对地方财政造成动态冲击，合理施策有利于保障地方财政可持续性。为此，选取我国2010—2019年251个地级市数据，使用熵值法从财源结构、支出效益、治理目标和区域协调四个方面构建地方财政可持续性指标，系统考察持久性减税对地方财政可持续性的短期与长期动态效应。研究发现：持久性减税短期内不利于地方财政可持续性，但从长期来看，将对地方财政可持续性产生显著的促进作用；异质性分析表明，短期内减税对地方财政可持续性的负向影响在经济发展水平更高、财政自给率更高以及产业结构高级化更强的地级市更明显，因此要更加注意施策力度。

Study on the Dynamic Effect of Persistent Tax Reduction on Local Fiscal Sustainability

Persistent tax cuts may have a dynamic impact on local finance, and reasonable policies are conducive to ensuring the sustainability of local finance. To this end, the data of 251 prefecture-level cities in 2010-2019 were selected, and the entropy method was used to construct local fiscal sustainability indicators from four aspects of revenue structure, expenditure benefit, governance objectives and regional coordination, to systematically investigate the short-term and long-term dynamic effects of persistent tax reduction on the local fiscal sustainability. The study finds that: persistent tax reduction is not conducive to local fiscal sustainability in the short term, but in the long term, significantly it will be; heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of tax reduction on the local fiscal sustainability in the short term is more obvious in prefecture-level cities with higher level economic development, higher financial self-sufficiency and more advanced industrial structure. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the intensity of implementing the policies.