美国量化宽松货币政策对中国溢出效应研究——基于贸易渠道分析

基于2008年10月~2014年3月的30个工业行业出口面板数据,运用FGLS方法,根据不同工业行业要素密集度考量美国量化宽松货币政策对我国工业出口贸易的影响。结果表明,美国量化宽松货币政策通过人民币汇率对我国资本密集型、劳动密集型和技术密集型行业的出口呈现出显著负面影响,通过国际大宗商品价格指数对我国劳动密集型和技术密集型行业出口产生显著负面影响,美国实际工业产出对我国三类工业行业出口呈现出显著正面影响。

Research on the Spillover Effect of American Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on China: Based on the Channel of Trade

This paper analyses the influence on China''s industrial exports caused by American quantitative easing monetary policy using FGLS method of panel data analysis with 2008.10~2014.3 panel data of exports of 30 industries in China. Then according to the different industry factor intensity, it studies the influence on capital intensive, labor intensive and technology intensive industries respectively. The results show that, the US quantitative easing monetary policy through RMB exchange rate has a significantly negative impact on the exports of China''s three types of industries; through the international commodity price affects the exports of China''s labor intensive and technology intensive industries negatively, while through the American real industrial output shows positive effect on the exports of China''s three types of industries.