政治关联的不确定性与企业经营风险——基于上市公司的案例分析

中国企业的政治关联，特别是企业与政治人物的关系长久以来都对企业的财务情况、企业业绩和股票价格有着深刻的影响。采用案例分析方法，对金螳螂、惠生工程和佳兆业三个具有政治关联的上市企业，在相关政治人物在任和“落马”前后的业绩和市值表现进行分析发现：上市企业与政治人物，特别是地方官员的紧密关系，能够帮助企业通过关联官员取得政策、信贷、信息资源，提升企业竞争能力和企业业绩，在企业初创和发展阶段能够为企业发展带来重大机遇，提升企业的市场价值。但这种政治关联，也会使企业面临成为政府官员权力寻租工具的风险，最终由于政治人物政治前途的不确定性造成风险，即使在企业业绩并未出现大幅下降的情况下，受到市场恐慌情绪影响，企业市场价值面临巨大下跌风险，并影响到企业的长远发展。

The Firms' Political Connections' Uncertainty and Risk of Operations--Based on Three Listed Firms

The firms'political connections,especially the relationships between the firms and the politicians have long influenced the financial conditions,performance and share price of the firms deeply.The thesis analyzes the changes in the performance and market value of Gold Man-tis,Wison Engineering and Kaisa Group with political connections while the related politicians are in office and sacked and has concluded that the close relationship between the listed firms and the politicians,especially the local officials help the firms get access to policy,credit and loan and information resource,so as to improve the competitiveness and the performance.It poses key op-portunities to a start-up and growth firms,thus increasing market value.But the political connec-tions will put the firms at risk that the politicians may pocket rent from the firms and of the poli-ticians'uncertainty of political future,so that the market value may decrease sharply because of the panic,even though there is no sharp decline in business.This will affect the future of the firms.