基于消费-收入生命周期的中国人口红利测算及国际比较

以联合国人口预测数据与NTA 消费水平和劳动力收入数据为样本，测算中国人口红利的起止期，比较美国、日本、韩国、法国与澳大利亚等代表性国家收获人口红利期间与人口红利消散后的经济增长。结果显示，在人口红利消散后，这些国家无一例外进入了经济低增长时代。中国在人口红利消失后同样面临有效劳动人口比重下降、人口老龄化的严峻挑战。因此，在经济社会转型时期，需调整人口政策与劳动保障政策。

China's Demographic Dividend and International Comparison: Calculated Based on the Lifecycle Consumption-Income Model

Using the United Nations population forecast data and NTA (the National Transfer Accounts)data on consumption and labor income,this paper calculates the phase of beginning and ending of China's demographic dividend.The results show that,with the real effective labor income level and effective consumption standards of demographic dividend in China began in 1973,and will dissipate in 2015.At the same time,this paper measures and compares with the United States,Japan,Korea,France and Australia and other typical countries economic growth in demographic dividend period and after demographic dividend to dissipate,the results show that,after the demographic dividend dissipate,the country's economic growth entered the era of low growth without exception.Although China's economic development is different from these countries,but when the demographic dividend disappeared These countries are facing the effective labor population decline and the challenge of an aging population .How to deal with Labor short-age,economic growth after demographic dividend dissipated is the Chinese government must to solve.