服务业全要素生产率研究——基于丝绸之路经济带数据

基于考虑人力资本的非参数 Malmquist 指数法，测算中国丝绸之路经济带沿线九省市2003~2012年服务业全要素生产率(TFP )变动情况，从技术进步与技术效率两方面考量服务业 TFP 。结果发现，丝绸之路沿线九省市服务业 TFP 的增长主要源于技术进步的贡献，而技术效率却在恶化，同时人力资本对技术进步和技术效率均具有正向贡献。结果表明：交通基础设施、对外开放和财政金融支持都对服务业TFP 的增长具有显著正向促进作用。鉴此，应强化交通基础设施建设，实现道路互通；深化对外开放，推动贸易畅通；增强财政金融支持力度，推进货币流通。

An Analysis of the Service Industry TFP in the Silk Road Economic Belt

This paper measures the service industry total factor productivity in 9 provinces in the silk road economic belt from 2003 to 2012,applying the nonparametric Malmquist index method which takes account of human capital.Then we analyze the service industry TFP charac-teristics from technical progress and technical efficiency.The result shows that the silk road eco-nomic belt service industry TFP growth stems mainly from the contribution of technological pro-gress,while the technical efficiency is deteriorating,and human capital have positive contribution to the technical progress and technical efficiency.Finally,by analyzing the influencing factors for the service industry TFP,we find that transport infrastructure,opening to the outside world, and fiscal and financial support play a positive role in the promotion of service industry TFP.In order to maintain a sustainable increase in productivity,the government should strengthen the traffic infrastructure construction to achieve roads interconnection,deepen opening to the outside world to promote trade flow,strengthen financial support to realize currency exchange.