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改革以来我国经济波动与消费、投资及进出口关系的协整分析
引用本文:课题组.改革以来我国经济波动与消费、投资及进出口关系的协整分析[J].财经理论与实践,2006,27(2):38-42.
作者姓名:课题组
作者单位:湖南大学,经贸学院,湖南,长沙,410079
基金项目:教育部人文社会科学规划项目
摘    要:根据协整检验和误差修正模型,利用我国1979~2003年的年度国民经济统计数据,分析了我国经济波动与消费、投资及进出口之间长期稳定的动态均衡关系和短期的波动关系.研究结果表明,消费和投资是影响我国经济波动的两大主要力量,进口和出口对我国经济波动的影响不大,净出口对我国经济波动的影响不明显.

关 键 词:经济波动  协整检验  误差修正模型  改革  经济波动  消费和投资  进出口  均衡关系  协整分析  Consumption  Economic  Fluctuation  Test  Cointegration  Investment  Reform  Export  净出口  进口  力量  影响  结果  研究  动态
文章编号:1003-7217(2006)02-0038-05
收稿时间:2005-10-19
修稿时间:2005年10月19日

Cointegration Test between Economic Fluctuation and Consumption, Investment, Import and Export of China since Reform
Research Group of "Research on Phase of Current Business Cycle in China".Cointegration Test between Economic Fluctuation and Consumption, Investment, Import and Export of China since Reform[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2006,27(2):38-42.
Authors:Research Group of "Research on Phase of Current Business Cycle in China"
Institution:College of Econamics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha ,Hunan 410079 ,China
Abstract:Cointegration test and error correction model are applied on the annual national economic statistic data from 1979 to 2003 of China to analyze the long and steady dynamic equilibrium relations and short term fluctuation relations between economic fluctuation and consumption, investment, and import and export of China. Research results indicate that consumption and investment are two main strengths affecting economic fluctuation of China, while the interactions between business fluctuation and import and export are limited, and the interaction between business fluctuation and net export is even not obvious.
Keywords:Economic Fluctuation  Cointegration Test  Error Correction Model
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