| 湖南经济周期阶段及其持续性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 课题组.湖南经济周期阶段及其持续性分析[J].财经理论与实践,2009,30(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 课题组 |
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| 作者单位： | 湖南大学,经济与贸易学院,湖南,长沙,410079 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖南省社会科学基金项目，主持人;陈乐一;成员:武剑、李玉双、刘苹、谢静、曾阿梅、李星、陈柏福等 |
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| 摘 要： | 根据湖南1978～2008年的相关数据对湖南经济周期阶段进行的研究,结果表明:虽然2004年湖南已经开始进入经济扩张阶段,但是2008年经济出现回落的迹象,实际产出正在向潜在产出靠近.同时,对湖南经济周期持续性研究结果表明:经济扩张阶段的持续时间一般是5.33年左右,因此,在2009年湖南经济周期阶段有可能发生变化,即经济很可能从扩张阶段转向收缩阶段.
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| 关 键 词： | 湖南经济 经济周期阶段 持续性 |
Analysis on Phases and Duration of Hunan Business Cycle |
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| Research Group.Analysis on Phases and Duration of Hunan Business Cycle[J].The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics,2009,30(6). |
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| Authors: | Research Group |
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| Institution: | Research Group (College of Economic , Trade,Hunan University,Changsha,Hunan 410079,China) |
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| Abstract: | The paper analyzes Hunan business cycle according to the data from 1978 to 2008.The results show that although Hunan economy is on expansion phase from 2004,it suffers a setback in 2008,which shows the actual output is approaching the potential output.The analysis on the duration of Hunan business cycle manifests that the expansion phase lasts around 5.33 years.Therefore there may be a change on Hunan business cycle,or a shift from expansion into contraction in 2009. |
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| Keywords: | Hunan economy Phases of business cycle Duration |
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