基于政策情景的家庭乘用车能源回弹效应研究 ——来自长株潭城市群的调查数据

基于长株潭城市群的调查数据,测算在燃料消耗量为5.0L/100km情景下家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应,并采用二分类Logistic法分析影响家庭乘用车直接能源回弹效应的因素.结果表明:长株潭城市群家庭乘用车平均直接能源回弹效应为20%;不同居民家庭乘用车的直接能源回弹效应差别较大,存在超级节能、零回弹、部分回弹和回火效应;户主受教育水平、收入水平、购买新车意愿、车辆行驶里程、出行偏好等因素对家庭乘用车超级节能和零回弹效应影响显著.

Energy Rebound Effect of Household Cars under a Policy Scenario: Evidence from Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group

Based on real survey data from Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group, this paper estimated the direct energy rebound effect of family cars under a policy scenario that the fuel consumption reduces to 5.0L/100km, and explored the affecting factors related to the direct energy rebound effect of household cars. The results showed that the average direct rebound effect in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group was 20%; the direct rebound effect showed large differences among families, existed super conservation effect, zero rebound effect, partial rebound effect and backfire effect; the factors that households'' education levels and income, appetite to buy cars, vehicle miles traveled and travel preference all have significant effects on the super conservation effect and zero rebound effect of household cars.