实际汇率、通货膨胀与巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应假说——基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验

利用中国30个省区的数据检验了中国经济相容于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的程度,结果表明:各省区的相对劳动生产率的差异与相对价格的关系符合巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应理论所描述的特征。对各省区的相对劳动生产率与相对价格进行逐个的协整检验,结果表明:有23个省区的数据符合理论所预示,这也从一个角度提供了各省区通货膨胀率长期存在差异的解释。进一步研究发现,生产率的差异与各省区的实际汇率之间存在较弱的长期协整关系。

Real Exchange Rate, Inflation and the Balassa-Samuelson Effect Hypothesis: Empirical Tests Based on the Provincial Panel Data in China

Using the 1990~2009 data from thirty provinces in China, the compatibility of the Chinese economy and the Balassa-Samuelson effect has been tested. The empirical results show the relationship between the relative productivity differences and the relative prices of the provinces is consistent with what BS effect theory describes. After the co-integration test on the relative productivity and relative price of China''s provinces one by one, data of 23 provinces are found be consistent with the theory, which also gives a new explanation to the different inflation rate among provinces. Further research finds that there is a weak long term co-integration relationship between the productivity differences and the real exchange rate.