县域经济产业结构演进的实证探讨——以湖南省浏阳市为例

以1993~2012年浏阳市县域经济产业结构演进为分析对象,运用多样化的实证分析方法,探讨浏阳市县域经济的产业结构重心演进轨迹,并运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对浏阳市接下来三年的产业结构发展情况进行经济预测。结果表明:浏阳市应该改变现阶段第二产业"一家独大"的单一局面,分步骤、分阶段地逐步提高第三产业比重,大力发展服务经济,培育县域经济新的增长点,促进县域产业结构的不断优化升级。

An Empirical Study on Evolutionary Process of County Economy Industrial Structure: a Case Study of Liuyang of Hunan Province

Based on the statistics of Liuyang county ''s economy between 1993~2012, the authors use a variety of empirical analysis methods, exploring Liuyang county''s evolution of industrial structure, forecasting the following 3 years'' industrial statistics with Grey Model (GM(1,1)). According to this analysis, we can draw these conclusions: Liuyang should change the situation of imbalanced development of secondary industry, increase the proportion of the tertiary industry, cultivate new economic growth point and promote the county''s industrial structure optimization and upgrading.