利率市场化、信贷歧视与中国经济发展——基于动态一般均衡模型的分析

通过引入"信贷系数"刻画了行业间可能存在的信贷歧视现象,拓展了中国动态一般均衡模型(Chinagem),模拟了中国利率市场化改革下整体利率水平提高、行业间利率歧视消除以及金融服务增效三条路径的动态经济效应.相对于基期而言,实际利率水平上升、行业间利率歧视消除将引起投资和实际GDP下降,但有利于优化行业资源配置,改善贸易条件;金融部门服务增效促进了投资和经济增长.此外,利率市场化有助于促进我国产业结构优化升级,推动国有企业改革.

Interest Rate Liberalization,Credit Discrimination and Economic Development in China:A Dynamic CGE Analysis

This paper introduces interest rate discrimination from the industry level depicted by the"credit coefficient".We expand the dynamic CGE model(Chinagem)to reflect the bank discrimination among industries and simulate the effect of the rising of basic interest rate,eliminating of the bank discrimination a-mong industries and more efficiency of financial service.The results show that,although the rising of the basic interest rate and the elimination of the bank discrimination will be unfavorable for the investment and economic growth in China,they can optimize resource allocation and improve terms of trade.Improving effi-ciency of financial services will be good for investment and economic growth in China.Furthermore the in-terest rate liberalization will be helpful for upgrading the industrial structure and promoting the reform of state-owned enterprises.