劳动力供给多维变化对制造业国际竞争力影响研究

依据1990-2014年劳动力供给数量、质量、成本及制造业国际竞争力相关数据,构建 VAR 模型,考量劳动力供给变化对中国制造业国际竞争力影响.结果表明:劳动力供给数量减少不利于制造业国际竞争力提升;劳动力供给质量上升有利于提高制造业国际竞争力,但其作用具有明显的滞后效应;劳动力成本上升有利于增强制造业国际竞争力,这与成本上升倒逼低端制造业转型升级等相关.鉴此,既要通过全面放开计生政策甚至鼓励生育以缓解劳动力供给数量快速下降对制造业国际竞争力带来的负向冲击;又要基于市场导向,培养产业所需的各层各类人才;同时合理运用劳动力成本上升的倒逼机制促进低端制造业转型升级,提高中国制造业国际竞争力.

Research on the Effect of the Multidimensional Changes in Labor Supply on the International Competitiveness of Manufacturing Industry

The quantity of labor supply has been decreasing,the average education years of la-bors has been prolonging and the labor cost has been increasing quickly in China.Under those conditions,the labor supply has been experiencing an unprecedented change and it will have a profound impact on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Based on the 1990～2014 year's data of the quantity,quality,cost of labor supply,and the international com-petitiveness of manufacturing industry,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the effective-ness of the labors supply change on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by constructing a VAR Model.The empirical conclusions are the following.Firstly,the decrea-sing of the labor quantity is unfavorable to enhance the international competitiveness of manufac-turing industry.Secondly,the increasing of the labor quality can enhance the international com-petitiveness of manufacturing industry,but it has a delayed effect.Thirdly,the rising of the la-bor cost can improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry and this may be related to the rising labor costs,forcing the low-end manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading.Therefore,we should relieve the negative impact of the rapid decline of labor supply on the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry by relaxing the family planning policy completely,and even encouraging fertility.We should culture various talents based on the market demands.We also should make rational use of the forced mechanism of the rising labor costs to push forward the transformation and upgrading of the low-end manufacturing industry, and further to improve the international competitiveness of manufacturing industry.