货币政策透明度与通货膨胀的关系研究——基于PVAR模型的实证检验

通过使用PVAR模型对11个发达国家1999～2009年的中央银行货币政策透明度与通货膨胀的动态关系进行的实证分析表明:11国中央银行货币政策透明度的提高显著地降低了通货膨胀水平,但这种效应存在滞后;反之,通货膨胀对于货币政策透明度没有显著影响。因此,提高货币政策透明度、加强中央银行的信息披露从长期看对治理通货膨胀具有积极的作用。

On the Relations between Monetary Policy Transparency and Inflation: An Empirical Test Based on a PVAR Model

The penal vector auto regression model is used to analysis the relations between monetary policy transparency and inflation over the period of 1999~2009 for 11 typical central banks over the world. The results indicate that, the improvement of monetary policy transparency can significantly reduce the level of inflation in spite of some lags on time. Conversely, the inflation level do not have significant impact on the monetary policy transparency. Therefore, improving the monetary policy transparency lever and strengthening the information disclosure of central bank can positively effect inflation management in the long run.