国际资本流动下的中国金融安全实证分析

分析了国际资本流动对金融安全的冲击路径以及非均衡机制测试我国外汇市场压力指数的大小，建立了资本净流入和外汇市场压力指数之间的VAR（6）模型，研究结论表明，国际资本的净流入会增大外汇市场压力，但货币当局的冲销干预会削弱这种影响，降低发生货币危机的可能性；货币当局的政策选择应该是盯住外汇市场，而不是单纯的货币市场。

Empirical Research on Financial Security based on the International Capital Flows in China

In the paper, the influencing path from international capital flows to our financial security has been analyzed, and the foreign exchange market pressure in China has been estimated, then the VAR model has been set up. The international capital flows tend to increase the exchange market pressure, however, under hedge intervention of monetary authority, the chance of financial crisis would reduce. Therefore, policy selection of monetary authority must to peg foreign exchange market and money market in order to ensure that whole national economic and finance security.