复杂经济运行背景下省域经济风险评价——基于安徽省1995~2009年的经验证据

省域经济是国家整体经济的重要组成部分,是推动我国经济健康快速发展的重要载体,近年来,我国省域经济发展经受着国内外复杂环境的严峻考验,在政府债务、区域金融、产业调整、资源环境利用等方面存在着较多的矛盾与冲突。通过构建省域经济风险评价指标体系和评价模型,利用安徽省1995～2009年经济运行的相关数据,对安徽省经济风险状况进行实证分析。结果表明,安徽省经济运行状况总体呈上升趋势,特别是产业类指标的综合指数增幅较大,反映了安徽省政府在依托本地区资源特色、发展优势产业方面做得较好。此外,还发现经济增长类指标指数波动较大,其中,1995～1998年、2008～2009年的经济增长类指数呈下降态势,说明省域经济增长具有较强的敏感性,容易受到市场化改革与金融危机等外部因素的影响。

The Assessment of Provincial Economic Risk under the Context of Complex Operation:the Empirical Evidence of Anhui Province during the period 1995~2009

The provincial economy is an important part of the national economy, and also is the important carrier to promote the China''s economic healthy and rapid development. In recent years, there are many serious problems in the development of provincial economy such as in the aspects of government debt, the regional finance, industrial restructure, and resource utilization. Using the data of the Anhui province during the period 1995 to 2009, the empirical analysis has been done by the risk evaluation model. The results show that, firstly, the economic show an upward trend, especially the industry indicator, which means that the local government is good at using fully of the local resource. Secondly, the indicator of economic growth has fluctuated a lot, and there were downward period during 1995 to 1998 and 2008 to 2009. Therefore, the provincial economic growth is sensitive to the market reform and the financial crisis.