中国收入等级不同的城镇居民预防性储蓄动机研究

将流动性约束条件纳入Dynan(1993)模型对其进行扩展,构建出包含流动性约束、不确定性、实际利率变量的新预防性储蓄模型。理论与实证结果表明:该模型更能体现我国收入等级不同城镇居民的储蓄行为特征;在不确定性存在条件下,新引入的流动性约束变量会对面临流动性约束不同居民的储蓄行为产生不同程度、甚至不同方向的影响,其影响程度随居民面临流动性约束的不同而变化。同时发现转轨时期仍然偏紧的流动性约束和日益增强的不确定性是抑制我国消费需求增长,加大居民预防性储蓄动机的根源。

Precautionary Savings Incentives of Urban Residents with different income levelin China

In the paper liquidity constraints are introduced into the model of Dynan(1993) to expand it, then a new precautionary saving model has been constructed containing liquidity constraints, real interest rate and uncertainty variable. The empirical results show that: this model is more suitable to discover the characteristics of the urban residents'' saving behavior compared to the model Dynan(1993); under the condition of uncertainty, the liquidity constraints variable produces influence with different degree, even different directions to residents who faced different liquidity constraints. Moreover, it is found that tight liquidity constraints and increasing uncertainty restrain the growth of consumer demand and stimulate the precautionary saving in the transitional period of China.