基于城乡消费差异的农民工市民化动态分析

运用VAR脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,实证考量1978～2010年间消费对农民工市民化的动态影响效应。结果表明:消费对农民工市民化进程具有较大影响力;农民工与城市居民消费差距的缩小对市民化率的增长具有促进作用,正向冲击效应持续时间长且强度大。农民工与城市居民收入差距的变化对农民工市民化率有正负双向冲击,短期对农民工市民化有负向冲击效应,但随着时间的推移,正向效应逐渐显著。鉴于此,关注农民工与城市居民消费差异,扩大农民工消费对中国经济建设和城镇化进程具有重要意义。

Dynamic Analysis of Urbanization of Peasant Workers based on Consumption Differences

By using VAR impulse response function and variance decomposition method, dynamic analysis on the urbanization of peasant workers has been done using the consumption data from 1978 to 2010. It turns out that consumption has a greater influence on the process of citizenization of peasant workers. And the narrowing of the consumption gap between urban and rural areas has a promoting effect on the growth of citizenization, especially a greater long-term positive driving effect. Moreover, the transformation of income gap between urban and rural areas has a dual-effect on citizenization rate of peasant workers: negative effect in short term while positive effect as time goes on. Therefore, paying close attention to consumption differences between peasant workers and urban residents, and enlarging peasant workers'' consumption is of great significance to the economic construction and urbanization in our country.