Future utility services’ (un)knowns framework: Knowledge existence and knowledge reach |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Safety, Economics and Planning, University of Stavanger, Stavanger, Norway;2. Santander Consumer Bank AS, Lysaker, Norway;3. Department of Anaesthesiology and Intensive Care, Stavanger University Hospital, Stavanger, Norway;4. Institute for Sustainable Food Systems and School of Forest Resources and Conservation, University of Florida, USA;5. Petroleum Safety Authority Norway, Stavanger, Norway;6. Department of Engineering, University of Messina, Messina, Italy;1. University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy;2. Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway;3. SINTEF Technology and Society, Trondheim, Norway;4. Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John''s, NL, Canada;1. Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway;2. SINTEF Technology and Society, Trondheim, Norway;3. University of Pisa, Pisa, Italy;4. DNV GL, Houston, TX, United States;1. University of Richmond, USA;2. University of Stavanger, Norway |
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| Abstract: | This paper presents a framework for assessing risks and uncertainties in the domain of utility services in futures up to 100 years hence. A nine-step process framework is presented following a review of extant literature. The framework provides a way to quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate one or more vignettes (potential future utility infrastructure solutions) by examining: 1. Alternative scenario contexts; 2. User utility service requirements; 3. Technologies’ readiness; 4. Knowledge of each technology life cycle stage; 5. Criticality of technologies to user requirements; 6. Interdependencies between technologies. The framework is based on collecting multiple expert contributions in order to arrive at a comparative evaluation. We use the ‘city blood’ vignette, which represents an infrastructure system delivering hydrogen enriched water, to apply the framework to two radically different scenario contexts. |
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| Keywords: | Vignette Scenario Utility conversion Risk Uncertainty Technology |
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