旅游地社会-生态系统成长模式研究——以金寨县为例

旅游引发的自然、社会、物质和人力资本等流量与流向的变化,关系着旅游地社会-生态系统运行的轨迹和可持续状态。基于循环经济相关理论,尝试构建旅游地社会-生态系统“五流”分析框架,以金寨县为案例地,使用PCA-OWA方法,分析2008—2019年旅游地社会-生态系统的资本变化、成长阶段及成长模式,并对其演化轨迹进行情景模拟。结果表明：（1）旅游业通过直接影响人口流动、商品和服务流动、信息流动以及各种资源消耗等“流”因素,使得金寨县旅游地社会-生态系统的物质和人力资本逐步增加,但社会资本仍处于较低水平,自然资本消耗较为明显;（2）12年间金寨县社会-生态系统呈现逐步好转的态势,其成长可划分为2008—2011年低水平匀速增长及2012—2019年快速成长2个阶段;（3）外生模式是金寨县目前持续的运行状态,未来在环境保护与经济发展关系的不断优化下有可能进入内生模式。随着旅游活动的扰动增强,旅游地社会-生态系统内部关系更加复杂,深入探究旅游地社会-生态系统成长的内在机理,可为区域可持续发展的政策制定提供科学参考。

A study on the growth model of social-ecological system of tourist destination: Taking Jinzhai County as an example

The change of flow and direction of natural, social, material, and human capital caused by tourism is related to the track and sustainable state of socio-ecological systems in tourism destinations. Based on the relevant theories of circular economy, this paper attempts to construct a "Five Streams" analysis framework of the social-ecological system in tourism destinations. Taking Jinzhai County as the case, Principal Component Analysis and Ordered Weighted Averaging method were used to analyze the capital change, growth stage, and growth mode of the social-ecological system of tourism destination from 2008 to 2019, and its evolution trajectory was simulated. The results are as follows: (1) Tourism directly affects the flow of population, the flow of goods and services, the flow of information and the consumption of various resources, and other "flow" factors, increasing the accumulation of physical and human capital. However, its social capital accumulation is still at a low level and unstable. Natural capital decrease is significant. (2) Socio-ecological system in Jinzhai County showed a trend of gradual improvement during the past 12 years, and its growth could be divided into two stages: low level equilibrium growth from 2008 to 2011 and rapid growth from 2012 to 2019. (3) Exogenous mode is the current continuous operation state of Jinzhai County. It may become endogenous mode in the future with the continuous optimization of the relationship between environmental protection and economic development. With the increasing disturbance of tourism activities, the relationship between social and ecological system in tourism destinations becomes more complex. In-depth study on the internal mechanism of the growth of social and ecological system in tourism destinations can provide scientific reference for making policies on regional sustainable development.