当“灰犀牛”遇到“黑天鹅”——网民对邮轮旅游负面事件的风险感知变化

邮轮旅游因其内在脆弱属性,一直受到各类负面事件的影响。2020年初“钻石公主号”邮轮的新冠疫情跨境蔓延引起全球网络关注,极大地影响了公众对邮轮旅游的风险感知及消费决策。本文以知乎网站评论为数据来源,将疫情发生和全球邮轮停运为时间节点,把邮轮负面事件划分为3个阶段,运用词频分析、语义网络分析、情感分析结合空间分析等方法,探究中国网民的风险感知变化。研究发现: “灰犀牛阶段”,邮轮正常运营,网民风险感知聚焦于自然灾害和救援开展;新冠疫情初发时的“灰犀牛遇到黑天鹅阶段”,邮轮逐渐停航,网民风险感知聚焦于邮轮公共卫生安全;疫情全面爆发后的“黑天鹅阶段”,邮轮全面停航,网民风险感知包括自然灾害、火灾、疫情等多个方面,感知内容趋向分散。同时,网民的风险感知空间分布存在差异,沿海地区网民对邮轮负面事件多以正面和微弱负面情绪为主;但内陆地区网民因对邮轮旅游了解程度相对较低,其感知负面居多。当前,新冠疫情仍在全球蔓延,研究内容可为邮轮旅游的疫后市场恢复和可持续发展提供参考。

When the "gray rhino" meets the "black swan":Risk perception and emotional changes of netizens on negative events in cruise tourism

Cruise tourism has been affected by all kinds of negative events because of its inherent fragile nature. In early 2020, the cross-border spread of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship attracted global attention, greatly affecting the risk perception and consumption decisions of the public on cruise tourism. Using comments on Zhihu website as data source, this paper divides the negative events of cruise ship into three stages by taking the outbreak of COVID-19 and the global cruise ship shutdown as time nodes, and uses word frequency analysis, semantic network analysis, emotion analysis, and spatial analysis to explore the changes in the risk perception of Chinese netizens. Research findings show: At the "gray rhino stage", the operations of cruise ships were normal and the risk perception of netizens focused on natural disasters and rescue operations. When the "gray rhinoceros meets black swan stage" at the beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic, cruise ships were gradually suspended, and the risk perception of netizens focused on public health safety of cruise ships. At the “black swan stage” after the outbreak of the epidemic, cruise ships were suspended, and the risk perception of netizens tended to be dispersed, including natural disaster, fire, and epidemic. At the same time, the spatial distribution of the risk perception of netizens is different. In coastal areas, netizens mainly have positive and weak negative emotions towards negative events of cruise ships. However, Internet users in inland areas have a relatively low understanding of cruise tourism, and their perceptions are mostly negative. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread around the world, this study can provide references for the post-epidemic recovery and sustainable development of cruise tourism.