制度变迁对中国旅游经济增长的贡献——基于市场化进程的视角

面向市场化的制度变迁是推动中国旅游经济发展的重要力量。文章以市场化指数表征制度变迁,利用各省份的市场化指数与旅游经济面板数据,从时空角度剖析中国制度变迁对旅游经济增长的贡献。通过ADF单位根、E-G两步协整模型和格兰杰因果模型检验显示,从1997年到2009年,中国市场化进程与旅游经济增长存在稳定的协整关系,制度变迁对旅游经济增长存在单向的格兰杰因果作用关系;固定效应模型回归显示,市场化对旅游经济增长的贡献效应明显,这一时期全要素生产率增长的14.47%和旅游经济增长的4.45%是由市场化改革贡献的,且随着市场化进程的推进,贡献效应还在加强;制度变迁对不同区域的旅游经济增长呈现显著的正效应,但具有较大的区域差异,总体而言,市场化水平越高的区域,旅游经济越发达,区域的市场化变迁程度越强,对旅游经济增长的边际贡献度越大。中国的市场化体制改革还远没有完成,改革依然是中国尤其是中西部省份旅游经济增长的后发优势。

Contribution of Institutional Change to China's Tourism Economic Growth:A Marketization Perspective

Since the reforms and opening up of China＇s economy in 1978, the marketization of the economic operation system has increased. These reforms are essentially institutional changes, in particular, market-oriented economic institutional changes, and have led to remarkable economic growth in China. Market-oriented institutional change is an important force in promoting China＇s tourism economic development. With market-oriented reform and the development of the tourism industry, research on the mutual relationship between institutions and economic growth in the tourism industry has increased. Institutional variables are difficult to measure, however, so we cannot quantitatively reveal the contribution of institutional change to total factor productivity （TFP） and tourism economic growth. Based on the development of the tourism economy and the characteristics of the tourism industry, we employ the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） index of marketization to represent institutional change using panel data about tourism enterprises. We also construct an economic growth model to investigate the quantitative contribution of institutional change to the economic growth of China＇s tourism industry using a space- time view. First, this paper employs ADF unit root tests （using the Engel-Granger Two-step Co-integration Model and the Granger Causality Model） to examine the long-term equilibrium and cause-effect relationship between institutional change and tourism. The results show that there is a long-term stable co-integration between the revenue growth of the tourism industry and the marketization index, and that the effect of institutional change on the economic growth of the tourism industry was in the Granger causality range between 1997 and 2009. Second, the paper uses a fixed effects model regression to show that marketization contributes 0.49 percentage points to China＇s annual tourism economic growth rate, which accounts for 14.47% of TFP and 4.45% of tourism economic growth. In this period, fixed assets still played the most important role in tourism economic growth. As with the marketization process, the effect of this contribution has also strengthened and accelerated China＇s development in this area. Finally, through the comparison of the regression coefficient, the annual average index of marketization, the annual average tourism enterprises revenue, and the fast pace of marketization reveal that institutional change has significant positive effects on the tourism economic growth of different regions. Overall, higher levels of marketization were associated with more developed regional tourism economies. In addition, the faster the marketization reforms occurred, the greater was the marginal contribution to economic growth of tourism. The results verify that the reforms have had a significant effect on the development of China＇s tourism industry. The transition to an open economy has not yet fully occurred in China, but the Chinese tourism industry has still taken advantage of market-oriented economic institutional change and economic growth, especially in the central and western provinces. Because of the complexity of institutional change and the tourism industry, and data quality problems, this study may have certain limitations. We therefore remain cautious about the conclusions of the study.