旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放研究进展

人类利用能源导致温室气体排放量的持续增加是全球气候变化的直接驱动力。旅游开发、旅游活动及旅游业发展引起的温室气体排放是旅游业驱动气候变化的重要因素,同时也是发展旅游业主要的环境影响结果之一。随着旅游业的蓬勃发展,旅游业对环境和气候变化的影响被相关国际组织和社会各界所关注,旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放研究成为近5年来旅游研究领域的热点。国外研究综述表明,目前已识别旅游业能耗、排放的重点领域及结构;在旅游业能源消耗与二氧化碳排放的定量估算研究与情景分析方面形成初步结论。对不同类型旅游交通方式、住宿方式及旅游活动的单位能耗和排放强度等关键性参数取得一般性认识,并识别了明显的国别、地区及不同部门之间的差异。基本形成体系化的节能减排政策措施。基于国内外旅游业能源需求与二氧化碳排放的结构与途径、测算、预测与情景分析及节能减排对策与措施等方面对比研究,作者指出未来国内研究应重点加强旅游交通和住宿业等重点领域能源需求与排放的定量实证研究,加强旅游业能源需求与排放的预测分析和情景研究,加快推进旅游业气候政策研究,切实提高旅游业应对气候变化和节能减排的研究水平,提高政策措施针对性和可操作性,以期为我国旅游业节能减排、应对气候变化提供科学依据。

The Progress of Research into Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions from the Chinese Tourism Industry

The greenhouse gas emissions that are caused by tourism exploitation, tourist activities, and tourism development are an important factor of the tourism industry＇ s impact on global climate change and they are one of the main environmental consequences of tourism. According to the World Tourism Organization, the current contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions that comes from the travel and tourism sector accounts for 5% of total global anthropogenic emissions. Excluding aviation, global travel and tourism is responsible for about 3% of greenhouse gas emissions and it is estimated that CO2 emissions from tourism （excluding aviation） will grow at 2. 5% per year until 2035. Therefore, in the last five years the international tourism industry has prioritized energy- saving and CO2 emission-reduction. Although aviation contributes 2% of total man-made CO2 emissions, the recent decline in air traffic （due primarily to the global recession） means that in 2012 the aviation-related CO2 emissions have receded to 2005 levels. Meanwhile, although it is calculated that air traffic will grow at an annual rate of 5% for 15 to 20 years after the global economy recovers, it is also estimated that the annual increases in CO2 emissions from the aviation industry will be limited to about 2.7% because of expected load factor gains and the replacement of existing fleets with more fuel efficient planes. However, despite this fall in CO2 emissions from the aviation industry, the combined greenhouse gas emissions from tourism and aviation are projected to continue to have a considerable impact on global climate change. Consequently, the impact of the rapid growth of the tourism industry on environmental and climate change has attracted considerable attention. For example, many previous studies have recognized the importance of minimizing the negative impact that the tourism industry has on the environment. Recent research has also drawn preliminary conclusions regarding quantitative estimates and scenario analyses, and have recognized the important roles and the key parameters of different types of tourist transportation, accommodation, and tourist activities. They have also identified the apparent differences between countries, regions, and tourism sectors. Moreover, preliminary policies and measurement systems relating to energy-saving and emission reduction have been established. In this study, we have reviewed the previous research into energy-saving and emission-reduction in China＇ s tourism industry. We have also conducted a comparison of the construction, estimation, forecasts, and scenario analysis of energy-saving and emission-reduction in the tourism industry across China and in other countries. Based on our comparative results, we have suggested that more attention should be focused on quantitative and empirical research （especially in tourism transportation and accommodation） to strengthen the research of forecasting and scenario analysis and to develop tourism-related climate policy in China. These suggestions would effectively improve the level of research regarding China＇ s tourism industry, particularly those related to the topics of energy- saving, emission-reduction and climate change. In addition, we recommend that authorities in China should bring in more targeted and operable policies and measures to address these issues. Finally, our study provides a scientific basis for energy-saving, emission-reduction and combating climate change in China＇ s tourism industry.