| 中国入境旅游外汇收入季节调整实证分析 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 孙玉环.中国入境旅游外汇收入季节调整实证分析[J].旅游学刊,2006,21(7):29-33. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 孙玉环 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 东北财经大学统计系,辽宁,大连,116025 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 旅游业的行业特点决定了中国入境旅游时间序列的发展趋势中存在明显的季节变动因素及不规则因素.本文利用X-12-ARIMA季节调整方法,把中国入境旅游外汇收入序列具体分解为长期趋势因素、季节变动因素及不规则因素,并对各构成因素作了简要分析,以期能对中国入境旅游业的变动规律给出一个相对客观的认识.
|
| 关 键 词： | X-12-ARIMA方法 入境旅游外汇收入 趋势因素 季节因素 |
| 文章编号： | 1002-5006（2006）07-0029-05 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-10 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年4月10日 |
An Empirical Study on Seasonal Adjustment of the Foreign Exchange Revenue from China's Inbound Travel |
| |
| SUN Yu-huan.An Empirical Study on Seasonal Adjustment of the Foreign Exchange Revenue from China''''s Inbound Travel[J].Tourism Tribune,2006,21(7):29-33. |
| |
| Authors: | SUN Yu-huan |
| |
| Institution: | Deparonent of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025, China |
| |
| Abstract: | Seasonal change and irregular change factors exist evidently in time series of China's inbound travel,which is determined by the industrial characteristics of tourism.Through applying X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method,time series of the foreign exchange revenue from China's inbound travel is decomposed into three parts:long-term trend factor,seasonal factor and irregular factor.Then these three parts are briefly discussed separately in order to give an objective understanding of the change regulations of China's inbound travel industry. |
| |
| Keywords: | X-12-ARIMA method foreign exchange revenue from inbound travel trend factor seasonal factor |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
