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出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同
引用本文:蒋依依,刘祥艳,宋慧林.出境旅游需求的影响因素--兼论发展中经济体与发达经济体的异同[J].旅游学刊,2017(1):12-21.
作者姓名:蒋依依  刘祥艳  宋慧林
作者单位:中国旅游研究院,北京,100005
基金项目:国家“万人计划”青年拔尖人才课题“中国出境旅游流的决定因素与效应研究”,国家旅游局科研立项重点项目“中国出境旅游流的决定因素整合制度、贸易与交通的经验分析”(14TACK009),国家旅游局旅游业青年专家培养计划课题“旅游流与旅游效应”(TYEPT201404)共同资助。[This study was supported by grants from the National“Ten Thousand Talents”Program,China National Tourism Administration (to JIANG Yiyi)(14TACK009& TYEPT 201404)
摘    要:根据微观经济学的需求理论,结合相关研究进展,文章构建了包括基本经济因素(收入和相对价格)、对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征、突发事件等变量在内的出境旅游需求模型,以74个国家/地区1995—2013年的数据为样本,分析了发达经济体和发展中经济体出境旅游需求影响因素的总体特征与异同。结果表明,收入和价格是影响出境旅游需求的决定性因素,对外开放度、旅游业发展水平、人口统计特征及突发事件等其他因素对出境旅游需求同样具有一定的影响。其中,收入、价格以及产业发展水平对发展中经济体出境旅游需求的影响作用相对更大,而对外开放度和人口统计特征(就业水平、年龄结构和受教育水平)对发达经济体出境旅游需求的影响更加显著。

关 键 词:出境旅游  旅游需求  影响因素  国际比较

Influencing Factors of Outbound Tourism and Their Different Functions in Developing and Developed Economies
JIANG Yiyi,LIU Xiangyan,SONG Huilin.Influencing Factors of Outbound Tourism and Their Different Functions in Developing and Developed Economies[J].Tourism Tribune,2017(1):12-21.
Authors:JIANG Yiyi  LIU Xiangyan  SONG Huilin
Abstract:This research aims to empirically examine the influencing factors of outbound tourism demand and their different functions in both developing and developed economies. Looking to existing studies, an outbound tourism demand model is created from the perspective of the tourist source market. The model includes the following influencing factors: economic, social, tourism industry development, and demographics. In this model, outbound tourism demand is measured by tourist departure per capita and expenditure levels (total expenditure divided by population). Explanatory variables are GDP per capita, exchange rate, inflation rate, trade openness, number of Internet users, tourism industry development level, demographics (employment, age structure, and educational level), and year dummies. The applied panel data for the period 1995 to 2013 comprises information from 74 countries and regions. To gain more valid and robust estimations, feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) are adopted based on the least square dummy variable (LSDV) model.
The research findings are as follows:(1) Income level and relative price are the core influencing factors of outbound tourism. The other factors (trade openness, number of Internet users, tourism industry development, and demographics) also have certain effects on outbound tourism demand. (2) In developing and developed economies, the influencing factors of outbound tourism demand play different roles. Regarding developing economies, income, price, and tourism industry development have a greater influence in promoting outbound tourism demand. In developed economies, income plays a less important role in outbound tourism development, compared with its function in developing economies. However, it is worth mentioning that trade openness, number of Internet users, and demographics tend to have greater and more significant impacts.
It is presumed that the above general conclusions regarding outbound tourism demand in developing economies will apply to China. It is reasonable to assume that the higher GDP per capita, continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and the continual development of the tourism industry have resulted in China??s current high-speed growth in outbound tourism departures and expenditure. To some extent, this rapid growth is rooted in the overall economic and social development of China. Thus, even under the pressure of the negative impacts brought by outbound tourism development (e.g., foreign currency outflow and the so-called deficit in service trade), the relevant policy-making should be rational as well as cautious.
Compared with previous studies, this research has made the following progress. First, the larger sample size and panel data make the research findings more accurate and objective. Second, the study concentrates on the different functions of the influencing factors in developing and developed economies. Because there are few related studies, the present study provides valuable implications for future research. Third, the applied estimation technique FGLS based on the LSDV model is very sophisticated. Compared with the fixed effects model, the estimation results are more effective. This study also has some limitations. Subjected to data limitations, it fails to consider factors concerning tourism destination and those linking the tourist source market and destination. Additionally, other relevant factors such as leisure time and income distribution were not considered.
Keywords:outbound tourism  tourism demand  influencing factors  international comparison
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