中国省域入境旅游发展的空间计量建模与影响因素效应研究

空间计量模型在旅游研究中已得到有效应用,解决了旅游产业发展中的一些实际问题,但还需进一步改进与完善。文章以中国省域入境旅游发展为着眼点,增设扩散转移矩阵为模型因变量滞后的空间权重矩阵,以反映入境旅游在中国省域之间的客流人数扩散转移实际情况,同时从最为全面的广义嵌套空间模型入手,引入旅游研究空间计量模型系统,并以区域入境旅游发展影响因素为模型自变量,构建了入境旅游发展的最优空间计量模型,最后对模型显著自变量的直接效应、溢出效应、总效应进行评估分析,给出区域入境旅游发展建议。结果显示:模型自变量出现显著消极效应的影响因素几乎为酒店供应,加强旅游资源建设和经济水平发展始终是入境旅游发展的重要途径,而开放程度已对东部省域的影响较为微弱,对中部和西部省域则起到很好的积极效应,同时交通设施在中部省域呈现出非常强劲的溢出效应。

Spatial Econometric Modeling and the Influencing Factor Effects of Inbound Tourism Development in China’s Provincial Regions

The spatial econometric model has been effectively applied in tourism research and has solved some practical problems in the development of the tourism industry. However, the spatial weight matrix concentrates on the 0-1 matrix and inverse distance matrix, which can only indicate whether the provinces are adjacent and the inverse distance effect between provinces. Simultaneously, the spatial econometric model is limited to the spatial lag model, spatial error model and spatial Durbin model. However,the inbound tourist flow includes not only the tourist flow between the tourist source market and the tourist destination but also the one-way and two-way tourist flow between the tourist destination. Thus,inbound tourism has its own unique scenario of tourist flow diffusion transfer between China’s provinces. Existing spatial econometric models for tourism research need further improvement and perfection because they cannot reflect or depict the actual scenario of inbound tourism very well.According to the tourist flow transfers and development impact patterns of inbound tourism between China’s provinces, in this paper, the diffusion transfer matrix is added as the spatial weight matrix of the model dependent variable lag to reflect the scenario of the tourist flow diffusion transfer of inbound tourism between China’s provinces, and the impact of geographical spatial distance and crisis events are considered. Then the optimal spatial econometric model of regional inbound tourism development is constructed by starting with the most comprehensive generalized nested spatial model and introducing the spatial econometric model of tourism research based on ensuring the comparability of research variables over the years. The direct effect, spillover effect and total effect of the model’s significant influencing factors are also evaluated and analyzed, and some suggestions are provided for the development of regional inbound tourism. The results show the following:(1) When tourism resources, opening degree, transportation facilities and hotel supply are independent variables, the optimal spatial econometric models for the national, eastern, central and western provinces are the spatial Durbin model, spatial lag model, independent variable spatial lag model and generalized autocorrelation spatial model, respectively. When the economic level is an independent variable, the optimal spatial econometric models for the national, eastern, central and western provinces are the spatial lag model,generalized autocorrelation spatial model, ordinary linear regression model and spatial Durbin model,respectively, between inbound tourism development and the economic level.(2) The influencing factors with significant negative effects among the independent variables concentrate almost entirely on hotel supply, and strengthening tourism resources construction and economic development are always important approaches to inbound tourism development. Furthermore, the degree of openness has a weak impact on eastern provinces, but has a good positive effect on central and western provinces,whereas transportation facilities demonstrate a very strong spillover effect in central provinces.According to the actual scenario of the development of inbound tourism, a relatively optimal spatial econometric model for inbound tourism development is constructed, which not only provides more accurate scientific information for tourism-related government departments, industry organizations and research scholars but also serves as a reference for the spatial econometric analysis of tourism destination development. Regional inbound tourism development is a long-term topic, and different periods present different significant influencing factors. By clarifying the current development of regional inbound tourism, we can implement planning adjustment and policy guidance for various influencing factors to rationally coordinate the investment plan of inbound tourism development, effectively improve the promotion measures of inbound tourism development, and ultimately achieve the maximum value output of regional inbound tourism input and achieve long-term sustainable prosperity and development.