| 中国煤炭需求增长极限及其调控 |
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| 引用本文： | 方行明,杨锦英,郑欢. 中国煤炭需求增长极限及其调控[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2014, 34(12): 63 |
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| 作者姓名： | 方行明 杨锦英 郑欢 |
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| 作者单位： | 1西南财经大学经济学院，成都610074； 2西南财经大学科研处，成都610074； 3重庆交通大学财经学院，重庆400074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金重点项目，中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文利用面板数据的相关理论和模型建立起煤炭需求与经济发展的库兹涅茨曲线模型，并将工业化和城市化两个重要因素引入模型中，以对中国工业化和城市化进程中的煤炭库兹涅茨曲线进行研究。回归结果表明，中国工业化、城市化进程推动了煤炭需求快速增长，其中工业化对中国煤炭需求的作用远大于城市化，意味着中国工业化水平的加快是引起煤炭消费增长的主要原因，城市化水平则次之。煤炭消费量随着人均GDP的增长，先增加后减少，说明我国煤炭需求与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨特征明显，能源库兹涅茨的“倒U型”曲线假说在中国成立。模型显示，煤炭需求下降的理论拐点在2040年左右。考虑到各项制约因素的作用，中国煤炭年需求量和产量实际上已经达到增长的极限，因此，应采取各种有效的调控措施，严格控制煤炭需求量的上升，促使库兹涅茨曲线拐点提前到来。
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| 关 键 词： | 煤炭需求 库兹涅茨曲线 经济增长 工业化 城市化 |
| 收稿时间： | 2014-06-15 |
ON THE GROWTH LIMITS TO CHINA'S COAL DEMAND AND ITS CONTROL |
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| FANG Xing-ming,YANG Jin-ying,ZHENG Huan. ON THE GROWTH LIMITS TO CHINA'S COAL DEMAND AND ITS CONTROL[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2014, 34(12): 63 |
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| Authors: | FANG Xing-ming YANG Jin-ying ZHENG Huan |
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| Affiliation: | 1Economics School，Southwestern University of Finance and Economics，Chengdu 610074，China；;2Scientific Research Office，Southwestern University of Finance and Economics，Chengdu 610074，China； 3School of Finance and Economics，Chongqing Jiaotong University，Chongqing 400074，China |
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| Abstract: | This paper used panel data to establish a Kuznets model between coal demand and economic growth with two factors of industrialization and urbanizationThe regression results showed that the industrialization and urbanization of China resulted in the fast growth of coal demand and the role of industrialization was greater than that of urbanizationThe process of industrialization was the main reason for the growth of coal consumptionMoreover，per capita GDP growth brought an initial phase of coal consumption growth followed by a subsequent phase of coal consumption declineIt fitted a characteristic of Kuznets between coal demand and economics growth，which would be an inverted U shaped curve in ChinaThe model also showed the turning point of coal demand would appear in 2040However，both coal demand and production had their growth limitsThe government should adopt some effective measures to control the growth of coal demand，promote the turning point to come ahead of time |
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| Keywords: | coal demand Kuznets curve economic growth industrialization urbanization |
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