世界旅游业理事会预测:2010年将增长平缓,但长期前景依然乐观

自从世界旅游业理事会20年前首次开始测量旅游业经济影响以来,旅游业一直是世界上最重要的一个行业和就业部门,也是发展遥遥领先的行业之一。"但是,和其他行业一样,旅游业也受到去年信贷和住房市场衰退的重创,这次危机引发了自从经济大萧条时期以来经济最大程度的衰退,"世界旅游业理事会总裁让·克劳德·鲍姆加腾说。他近日在柏林国际旅游交易会上发布了委员会的年度研究结果。     

Entrepreneurship,job creation and wage growth

This paper analyses the importance of entrepreneurs in terms of job creation and wage growth. Relying on unique data that cover all establishments, firms and individuals in the Danish private sector, we are able to distil a number of different subsets from the total set of new establishments—subsets which allow us to more precisely capture the “truly new” or “entrepreneurial” establishments than has been possible in previous studies. Using these data, we find that while new establishments in general account for one-third of the gross job creation in the economy, entrepreneurial establishments are responsible for around 25% of this, and thus only account for about 8% of total gross job creation in the economy. However, entrepreneurial establishments seem to generate more additional jobs than other new establishments in the years following entry. Finally, the jobs generated by entrepreneurial establishments are to a large extent low-wage jobs, as they are not found to contribute to the growth in average wages.     

Job creation, job destruction, and the real exchange rate

Welfare gains from trade are reduced by adjustment costs associated with factor reallocation, but most studies of the effects of trade on labor markets focus only on net employment change. This paper takes a step toward identifying trade-related adjustment costs by estimating the effects of real exchange rates on labor reallocation using a new model of gross job creation and destruction applied to detailed U.S. manufacturing industries between 1973 and 1993. Trend real exchange rates significantly affect job reallocation but not net employment. Cyclical real exchange rates significantly affect net employment through job destruction only.     

Firm size and job creation in Germany

This paper reports new results on the role of firms from various size classes in the job generation process in Germany. It is based on a unique longitudinal data set covering all manufacturing establishments that existed in at least one year between 1978 and 1993 in the German federal state Lower Saxony. We find that gross job creation and destruction rates tend to decline with firm size, while net job creation rates and firm size are not systematically related when firms are classified according to their average number of employees in the base and end year. Small firms create (destroy) quite a large share of all new (lost) jobs.     

Health insurance and job creation by the self-employed

Health insurance is regulated at the state level by the use of state-mandated health benefits. These are regulations issued by the state that mandate minimum levels of certain benefits as part of policies offered, e.g., drug abuse and alcohol treatment services, treatment for mental illnesses, etc. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of state health insurance mandates on job creation by small firms using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) dataset for the period 1993–1995. Results from an ordered probit regression indicate that, the larger the number of mandates in a state, the lower the probability that a self-employed person will be a significant employment generator. These results hold when we consider both the sum of mandates as well as a cost-weighted measure of the most expensive mandates.     

Entrepreneurship,regional development and job creation: the case of Portugal

This paper investigates whether a high level of new business formation in a region stimulates employment growth in that region. We look at the lag structure of these effects using a data set covering a fairly large time span (1982–2002). We find that indirect effects of new firm births on subsequent employment growth are stronger than direct effects. However, indirect effects only occur about 8 years after new firm formation. In particular, and unlike the findings from studies of other countries using a similar approach, positive indirect effects do not seem to tail off in the Portuguese case. This is likely due to a general pattern of results in which lags appear to be longer for Portugal. In view of these results, we suggest that the lag times and magnitudes the effects on new firm formation on subsequent employment growth are likely dependent on the types and qualities of start-ups.

Foreign trade potential,small enterprise development and job creation in developing countries

Increasing American competitiveness in the international economy requires expanding trade with emerging markets, especially in developing countries of Asia, Latin America and Africa. Historically, as developing countries' economies have grown, the capacity for exporting and importing have both expanded. In the future, the capacity for trade in developing countries will depend increasingly on their ability to create sufficient numbers of jobs to absorb their rapidly growing labor forces.Unlike Western countries, most developing economies have a small percentage of their labor forces in large-scale manufacturing and a large share engaged in small-scale and informal sector enterprises. Small-scale enterprises have been the primary sources of labor absorption in cities in developing countries and will continue to play a crucial role in the future. Experience has shown that policies for improving the capacity of small-scale enterprises to generate jobs have had only mixed results in developing countries. The challenge facing governments and the private sector in the future include: (1) creating an economic environment conducive to small-enterprise development; (2) removing regulatory and administrative obstacles to small-enterprise expansion; (3) tailoring small-enterprise promotion programs to local conditions and needs; (4) providing capital and credit for small-business owners; (5) involving the private sector in small-enterprise development programs; and (6) providing technical assistance, training and educational programs through public-private partnerships.     

The role of business subsidies in job creation of start-ups, gazelles and incumbents

This study contributes to the empirical literature concerning the role of business subsidies in job creation. Our empirical analysis, using an extensive firm-level data, suggests that the impact of business subsidies on employment growth differs more between high-growth start-ups and other firms than between start-ups and incumbents. On average, all subsidies relate positively to the contemporary employment growth for both start-ups and incumbents. Furthermore, after subsidy reception, the employment of both start-ups and older incumbents receiving employment or other subsidies grows more than that of non-subsidized firms. However, we find that business subsidies do not provide a significant additional boost to either contemporary or after-subsidy growth for young high-growth companies. There are apparently some other factors that promote growth in young high-growth firms; these factors help foster strong growth in many cases with or without subsidies.     

Small business and job creation: Dissecting the myth and reassessing the facts

This paper investigates how job creation and destruction behavior varies by employer size in the U.S. manufacturing sector during the period 1972 to 1988. The paper also evaluates the empirical basis for conventional claims about the job-creating prowess of small businesses. The chief findings and conclusions fall into five categories:

The effect of firm formation and growth on job creation in the United States

This paper demonstrates the importance of new firm formation to economic growth. It begins by providing data that describe the United States as having had greater employment growth than most developed nations of the world over the last 25 years, and focuses upon why job growth in the United States has exceeded that of other nations.Job Creation by Firm Size. We first examine the data on the relative contribution of small and large firms to U.S. job growth. By summarizing research that is uniformly expressed in two-year periods and defines small firms as those with less than 100 employees, conclusive evidence emerges that small firms are the major sources of net new creation.Firm Entry/Exit Rates and Economic Growth. Further understanding of small firm job creation is obtained when we examine firm entry and exit data. Here we find that firm entry rates vary considerably from period to period (range: 10.4%–12.5%), whereas exit rates remain relatively stable from period to period (range: 9.6%–10.4%). Thus, variation in entrepreneurial activity—the formation of new firms—is the major cause of net increases in the number firms. In both the United States and the United Kingdom, net firm increases are positively related to overall economic activity.Firm Entry/Exit and Job Creation. Further exploration of this correlation can be conducted by examining job creation and loss defined by source: entries, expansions, exits, and contractions. The data for 1976 through 1984 shown here demonstrate that new entries account for 74.0% of the 50.8 million new jobs created. Expansions of existing firms accounted for 26.0%. Small firms (less than 500 employees) produced 54.6% of the entry jobs and 56.8% of the expansion jobs.On the other hand, job losses totaled 33.8 million, 79.0% due to exits and 21.0% to contractions. Small firms account for 53.6% of the jobs lost from exits and 47.8% of those lost from contractions. Overall, small firms account for 60.5% of the 17.0 million net new jobs.Given the data that show correlation between net firm formation rates and economic growth, the finding that entry rates vary more than exit rates, and the finding that new entries create most of the new jobs, it can be concluded that firm formation—especially small firm formation—is a significant factor in economic growth. Increases in small firm formation rates have a significant effect on net job creation.Schumpeter's Model and Observed Market Turbulance. Another finding from this data on job creation by entry, expansion, exit, and contraction is the large amount of job creation and destruction activity taking place. For the period studied, three jobs were created and two jobs destroyed for each net new job created. This describes a turbulent job market with many workers moving from job to job. The labor markets are much less stable that normally envisioned.This observed phenomenon fits well with Schumpeter's theory of capitalism; he proposes that capitalistic growth occurs because entrepreneurs use innovations to form new firms which enter existing markets. When successful, these growing new firms destroy existing market structures, causing decline of established firms while creating increased demand and producing overall economic growth. If Schumpeter is correct, one would expect to find high rates of firm formation and failure, and large numbers of jobs created by new firms, while many jobs are lost by exits and contractions of established firms. The findings reported here show this.Government Policy Affects on Entry/Exit. Our results also show that formation of small, new firms is a necessary requirement for economic growth. Historically, however, Government policy has not considered small firm entry as a central issue. Thus, government policies can and have had a negative effect on entry rates and therefore upon economic growth rates.Furthermore, high rates of new firm formation cause a great deal of turbulence in labor markets, with three jobs created and two lost for every one net new job. Such labor turbulence may be seen by policy makers as undesirable as it entails considerable worker movement from job to job. As such, policy makers have recently proposed policies to protect workers from job loss due to contractions and exits. However, such protection policies, as demonstrated in recent European experience, will also construct barriers to entrepreneurial entry. The result may be a decline in small firm entry and a decline in economic growth.Instead of protecting specific jobs, appropriate policies are those that facilitate movement of workers from job to job. Adequate unemployment compensation for short term unemployment, fully vested and portable pension plans, and retraining programs are examples of policies that allow the labor market to remain flexible while reducing the negative effect on those who lose jobs.