外资觊觎年金市场

企业年金如此被外资保险公司看重．原因在于：一是企业年金市场巨大，目前已经积累的企业年金达到了500亿元，如果企业年金迈上正轨，以后每年将增加1000亿元，这给保险公司充足的想象力。二是企业年金市场尚未被开辟。[编者按]     

企业年金规模近千亿 保险公司竞争加剧

据悉，我国企业年金的存量规模近1000亿元。每年新增资金将在800亿元到1000亿元左右，预计到2010年，企业年金的市场规模应超过5000亿元，10年后将达到10000亿元。保险专家称，企业年金制度对保险公司来说，具有较大的优势，因为保险公司经营了多年的商业补充养老保险业务，积累了丰富经验。     

外资保险“热身”中国年金

在中美第二次战略经济对话中，中方承诺将在下一轮对话前，简化外资企业提供企业年金服务的申请和批准程序，拓展海外保险公司在华业务范围。[编者按]     

企业年金制度的经济效应——基于一般均衡模型的研究

在人口老龄化背景下,企业年金制度得到了广泛发展,其产生的经济效应不容忽视.本文在一般均衡框架下,利用世代交叠模型(0LG)从宏观经济资本与产出、微观经济生产者、微观经济消费者三个层面分析了企业年金制度带来的经济效应.分析结果表明,企业年金制度的建立,使资本量和产量增加,使资本-劳动比、产出-劳动比及资本-产出比提高;导致利率和工资水平下降,但幅度不大;使工作期和退休期的消费增加,个人消费效用水平提高.就整体而言,企业年金制度的经济效应是正面的.     

基于混合整数规划的VaR历史模拟法的投资组合优化

针对VaR的历史模拟法计算速度慢,难于给出最优投资组合的缺陷,建立了两类混合整数规划模型,提高了VaR历史模拟法的计算速度,而且解决了历史模拟法的投资组合优化问题,拓展了历史模拟法的应用。实例计算表明,该方法求解方便、有效,模型对于企业风险管控具有一定应用价值。     

我国企业年金现状及政策建议

据保监会统计，我国企业年金市场全面启动后，每年的新增规模将在800亿元到1000亿元左右，10年后企业年金的市场规模将达到1万亿元，从而显示出巨大的发展潜力。然而在实际操作过程中，仍然存在着企业年金规模小、覆盖面窄、资本市场发展不完善、没有明确和全面的税收优惠政策等问题。笔者结合我国年金的发展现状，提出几点关于推动我国企业年金发展的对策建议。     

保险公司在企业年金市场运营主体中的地位

本文通过对企业年金市场各运营主体的分析,比较了各个运营主体的特点及在企业年金市场中所承担的角色,着重论述了保险公司(主要指寿险公司)在企业年金市场上相比其他机构所具有的比较优势。     

企业年金与资本市场发展

美国的企业年金已经形成了与资本市场的协同发展,我国企业年金的有效运营也将对资本市场起到积极作用。因此要促进企业年金的健康增长从而带动资本市场的发展。     

次级债融资对保险公司的影响分析

随着我国保险经营规模的不断扩大，保险监管要求保险公司必须具有充足的资本来支持保单负债，同时保险公司的所有者对于投资回报也提出了比以往更高的要求。2004年9月中国保监会颁布的《保险公司次级定期债务管理暂行办法》扩大了保险公司的融资渠道。本文在对保险公司次级债融资进行研究的同时，进一步分析了次级债融资对保险公司权益回报的影响。     

保险公司信用风险研究

信用风险一直是银行业面临的主要风险，主要指银行信贷方面的风险。保险公司和银行一样都是负债经营的金融机构，本身就面临着信用风险的冲击。随着保险公司的各种资本在资本市场的份额越来越大(主要指养老金和寿险)、保险公司资金运作的重视以及各种信用保证保险(包括车贷险，住房按揭保险等)的出现，信用风险对保险公司变得更为重要。特别是自2001年来全球经济萧条，安然、世通电讯等公司纷纷倒闭，信用风险又创新高。继90年代的信用危机高潮之后，2002年的违约率高达12％，使不少保险公司蒙受了巨大的损失。例如，最近在我国频繁暴光的车贷险的信用风险给产险公司带来的损失是十分巨大的，给保险公司带来了很大的影响。     

Energy price shocks,monetary policy and China's economic fluctuations

This paper develops a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with energy factors to study various channels through which China's economic fluctuations are linked to energy price shocks and to search for the optimal monetary policy to cope with energy price shocks. We conclude that there are channels through which changes in energy prices will have the following cause–effect relationships. First, a rise in energy price as a negative technology shock will raise the costs of providing capital services per unit of capital, thereby reducing output. Second, a rising energy price distorts the intertemporal choices of households and firms, creating downward pressure on the expected future return on capital. Third, an energy price shock places upward pressure on the marginal costs associated with an increase in inflation. Numerical simulation results show that a positive energy price shock has a positive effect on energy technology improvements. In addition, the effects of energy price shocks can be mitigated by nominal rigidities, and interest rate rules will determine the magnitude of those effects. Using the efficient frontier method, we also show that optimal monetary policy in China should help control energy price volatility.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

Modernization and dependency revisited: U.S. direct investment,development, and polity in Latin America, 1950–1998*

Since World War II, the modernization model has been the mainstream paradigm for economic development. Modernization assumes that foreign capital is a necessary catalyst for transforming societies from traditional to modem. Challenges to the modernization paradigm culminated in dependency theory. Dependency theorists point to detrimental effects of foreign capital and domination (e.g., income inequality, authoritarianism, and inappropriate consumption). Despite the charge by many scholars that this debate has subsided, basic but important questions remain to be answered. This paper assesses the role of U.S. direct investment (USDI) on the major economies of Latin America over time (1950–1998). Using Vector Autoregression, we look at the long‐term political relationships between USDI, economic development, and the degree of authoritarianism in the host country's government. We treat these variables as endogenous as both dependency and modernization hypothesize relationships among them. We find that there are only weak long‐term relationships between polity, development, and USDI. These results fully support neither the modernization nor the dependency model.     

Human capital quality and the regional economic growth: Evidence from China

China's economic development has advanced from a high-speed to a high-quality growth stage in recent years. The optimization and upgrading of the economic structure require high-quality human capital to support an innovation-driven economy. In this paper, a general equilibrium model of human capital (Xiang & Yeaple, 2018) is applied to estimate the cognitive and non-cognitive productivities based on Chinese provincial-level macro-data and individual labor's micro-data from 2008 to 2017. The weighted power mean of cognitive and non-cognitive productivities helps calculate the provincial-level human capital quality index (HCQI), which provides a realistic estimate of human capital quality. We find that the improvement of the HCQI leads to convergence in economic growth in China's provinces. HCQI can help explain the differences in economic growth levels in different regions of China. Our study provides a constructive step in understanding cognitive and non-cognitive abilities and HCQI in China, which could help guide education investment policy in China and its provinces.     

Anchor me: the benefits and challenges of fiscal responsibility

This paper discusses the benefits and challenges of implementing a rule‐based fiscal responsibility framework, using the Philippines as a case study. It estimates structural measures of the fiscal stance over the period 1980–2016 and applies a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal set of fiscal rules. The empirical analysis indicates that discretionary fiscal policy has been procyclical, and the degree of procyclicality has increased in recent years. While the national government's nonbinding ceiling on the overall budget deficit is helpful, it does not constitute an appropriate operational target to guide fiscal policy over the economic cycle and necessarily ensure that the fiscal stance meets the government's intertemporal budget constraint. To this end, I use stochastic simulations and show the macroeconomic benefits of a well‐designed fiscal responsibility law that enshrines explicit fiscal rules designed for countercyclical policy and long‐term debt sustainability and an independent fiscal council that improves accountability and transparency.     

State capacity and the socialist calculation debate

Despite its invaluable contribution to the field of comparative economics, the socialist calculation debate has focused on the narrow topic of the impossibility of the rational economic calculation under socialism. The literature on new institutional economics suggests that economic development is determined by economic and political institutions which are far more complex than the issue of economic calculation. To bridge the gap between the calculation debate and new institutional economics, this paper utilizes the historical case studies of Perestroika and Deng's China to demonstrate relationship between state capacity and economic calculation. We argue that rational economic calculation requires the state's institutional ability to make a credible commitment to constraints inhibiting public predation.     

An analysis on technical efficiency in post-reform China

This paper employs a fully nonparametric stochastic frontier model with time and individual effects to study technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy. The panel data cover China's thirty provinces for the period of 1985–2008. The empirical results show that the average output elasticity of labor is larger than the other two inputs of capital and human capital. Based on the specified inefficiency Tobit model, the factor analysis on technical efficiency shows that the time effects of technical efficiency in China's post-reform economy are significantly contingent on the factors. There exists significant regional differences in technical efficiency in China's economic development, and a number of policy implications can be drawn.     

Patents,foreign direct investment and economic growth in Australia, 1860–2010

We examine the long run relationship between innovation and economic development in Australia, using 150 years of data on patenting activity, and aggregate and sectoral economic indicators. Our initial results point to several important causal relationships, particularly the effects of patents on real GDP and of private capital formation on patents. We delve deeper at the sector level and find important causal relationships of patents with real foreign direct investment (FDI) since World War II. Australia's dependence on FDI for private capital formation served as an important stimulus for knowledge creation in key sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and mining.     

Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Enough to Account for China＇s Growth？

One of the missing pieces preventing us from understanding recent Chinese economic development is the role played by openness and capital accumulation in this process. The question is whether the sharp economic＇ growth that the Chinese economy has experienced is another case of export-led growth due to the open-door policy or whether, on the contrary, this growth has been caused by high domestic savings and investment rates （and the consequent capital accumulation）. To answer this question, we employed an empirical framework of the cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The empirical results show that both investment （in physieal capital and R＆D） and exports, as well as the exchange rate policy, are relevant factors in explaining China＇s long-run economic growth over the past 4 decades.     

基础设施资本回报率的估算及影响因素研究

文章在合理界定并调整基础设施统计口径基础上，运用永续盘存法非传统途径和生产函数法谨慎测算了基础设施的全套资本存量和资本回报率，并构造1993-2016年省级面板数据，从三个方面分解并检验了基础设施资本回报率的影响因素。研究发现：（1）全国生产性基础设施资本存量急剧攀升，年均增速达到12.6%。其中，经济基础设施存量持续高于社会基础设施。（2）基础设施资本回报率呈现倒"U"型变动趋势，且在不同基础设施类型和区域间保持稳健。其中，社会基础设施的资本回报率整体高于经济基础设施，东部地区的基础设施资本回报率高于中部地区，西部地区则长期处于低位运行。（3）基于基础设施资本产出比不断上升是其资本回报率持续下降的主因这一判断，进一步证实基础设施投资率及其资本深化程度，以及人力资本积累、城镇化等因素整体上均显著影响基础设施资本回报率。