USER INFLUENCE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FORECAST ACCURACY,APPLICATION AND LOGISTICS PERFORMANCE

When companies develop and apply more accurate forecasts in their planning and management activities, they have the potential to improve performance throughout their organization and across the supply chain. To realize these improvements, however, companies must (1) implement techniques and practices that improve forecast accuracy, and (2) integrate the more accurate forecasts into their planning and management activities. While much research has focused on accomplishing the first of these requirements, few studies have investigated the important role that user's play in the application of forecasts for logistics planning and management. This article establishes a connection between forecast performance, user perceptions of the quality of forecasts they receive, the extent that they use the forecasts and the resulting impact on logistics performance.     

A comparison of online and offline gender and goal directed shopping online

The aim of this paper is to model the effect of the consumers’ perceptions of their offline and online gendered behaviour on online utilitarian shopping motivation and purchase intentions. We hypothesise that when consumers shop online, their behaviour is mediated by two gendered behaviours, namely offline and online. To test this hypothesis, 515 usable responses were collected in face-to-face interviews. The conceptual model was tested with confirmatory factors analysis (CFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM) across five product categories. Our findings show that the effect of a consumer's perception of their gendered behaviour offline vs. online on online utilitarian shopping motivation and purchase intentions is significantly different. In particular we found that utilitarian shopping motivation online has a significant effect on purchase intentions online mediated by gender (online) overall: strongly for females but not for males. Conversely, utilitarian shopping motivation online has a significant effect on purchase intentions online mediated by gender (offline) for males but not overall and for females.     

Who Leads More and Why? A Mediation Model from Gender to Leadership Role Occupancy

Previous research has shown that female leaders lead slightly more effective than male leaders. However, women are still underrepresented in higher management. In this study, we seek to contribute to a deeper understanding of this paradox by proposing and testing an innovative model that integrates different research streams on gender and leadership. Specifically, we propose power motivation and transformational leadership as two central yet opposing dynamics that underlie the relation between gender and leadership role occupancy. We tested this model in a sample of 256 employees. Results provided support for the proposed relations. These findings contribute to a more detailed and comprehensive understanding for central dynamics that link gender and leadership role occupancy. Moreover, they provide important insights for interventions that are targeted at reducing the gender gap in leadership. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.     

Improving the Accuracy of Recent Survey Forecasts of the T-bill Rate

This study concentrates on the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to demonstrate a way to improve the consensus forecasts of interest rates. It promotes the notion that, in improving the survey forecast accuracy of a variable, one should investigate the usefulness of the predictive information contained in the survey forecasts of other theoretically relevant variables. This idea has been applied to the SPF forecasts of the 3-month Treasury-bill rate, which are shown to be one-sided for 2001.1-2003.4. We improve the accuracy of these forecasts by exploiting the predictive information contained in the SPF forecasts of inflation and output growth. We thus recommend that the possible improvement should be investigated before such interest rate forecasts are utilized for decision-making.JEL Classification C530     

THE IMPACT OF INTERNAL MARKETING EFFORTS IN DISTRIBUTION SERVICE OPERATIONS

Marketing efforts can offer firms a greater competitive advantage by overtly stimulating the impact of frontline logistics employees on customer value creation. In such a situation, internal marketing becomes the strategy of choice in both service and product support contexts. A broad marketing mix framework is introduced shifting the traditional application from marketing products to marketing the workplace to logistics distribution employees. Research findings support a multidimensional operationalization of internal marketing. Holistic tests indicate that internal marketing on an interpersonal level is associated with satisfied and higher performing distribution center employees and increased interdepartmental customer orientation.     

Managerial intervention in forecasting. An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation

There has been a continuing debate in the forecasting literature concerning the relative advantages of quantitative versus qualitative approaches to forecasting. However, although a considerable number of studies have contrasted the merits of the two approaches, relatively few efforts have investigated the application of human judgement on forecasts generated by quantitative forecasting models. This study is an empirical investigation of the effects of human intervention on forecast accuracy. It examines the consequences of managerial manipulation of sales forecasts initially produced by a smoothing model. A total of 281 products are investigated using multiple measures of forecast accuracy and the effects of subjective revision are discussed in terms of size, directionality, and distribution of errors. The results indicate that human intervention can lead to an overall improvement in forecast performance as reflected in a reduction in the variability and absolute size of forecasting errors. The results also show that more forecasts are improved by manipulation than are degraded. Finally, there is some indication that subjective revision may result in an increase in overall forecasting bias. These findings appear to conflict with previous evidence, however, the empirical setting of the present study is specific to shortterm sales forecasting which is not strictly comparable with the settings of earlier efforts.     

THE EFFECT OF INVESTMENT IN INTERORGANIZATIONAL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN A RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN

The primary purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of investment in information technology in a supply chain. The results of that investigation are presented by focusing on an empirically tested supply chain relationship model containing both behavioral and operational constructs. The four behavioral constructs represented in the model are relationship trust, relationship commitment, relationship dependence, and long‐term relationship orientation. The four operational constructs represented in the model are retailer investment in interorganizational information technology, perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology, logistics efficiency, and logistics effectiveness. Among other findings, the results of the investigation found that perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology has a significant and positive effect on logistics efficiency.     

Gender diversity on boards for organizational impression management: An empirical study of Japanese firms

The literature on gender diversity on corporate boards is growing, yet firms' motivation for achieving such diversity remains underexplored. This study examines the potential objective behind appointing female directors that could be driven by organizational impression management based on the hypothesis that firms strategically propose to nominate female directors when they need to form a favorable impression to their stakeholders, especially in relation to executive compensation. This study analyzed annual shareholders meeting agendas for 3585 listed Japanese firms between 2011 and 2020 and found that firms placed female director appointments on the meeting agenda when they needed approval for the revision of executive compensation. This tendency was strengthened for firms with more outside directors. This study's approach and findings contribute to the literature on corporate board gender diversity by suggesting organizational impression management as a potential strategic motivation behind the appointment of female directors.     

Mitigating information asymmetry through sustainability assurance: The role of accountants and levels of assurance

This paper aims to examine the usefulness of sustainability reporting in reducing information asymmetry as result of lower dispersion and higher accuracy in financial analysts’ earnings forecasts. The empirical results from an international sample of listed companies indicate that the disclosure of sustainability information alone is not sufficient in this regard as our findings indicate that information asymmetry is reduced to a greater when such information is assured, supporting the value relevance role of sustainability reporting and assurance. In addition, the empirical findings suggest differences in terms of assurance attributes (provider and level of engagement) and such differences are even more relevant when controlling the institutional context. Assurance is highly appreciated by investors in more stakeholder-oriented countries; however, in more shareholder-oriented environments, assurance affects information asymmetries only when it is provided by accounting professionals who also report a “reasonable” opinion.     

Electronic logistics service quality and repurchase intention in e-tailing: Catalytic role of shopping satisfaction,payment options,gender and returning experience

This paper empirically examines the mediating role of shopping satisfaction between electronic logistics service quality (e-LSQ) and repurchase intention. Further, this paper investigates the moderating role of gender, payment options, and returns or replacement experience on the link between e-LSQ and shopping satisfaction (and repurchase intention). Empirical data comprising 640 Indian online shoppers are analyzed with covariance-based structural equation modeling. The findings indicated that the condition of the shipment is the most crucial e-LSQ dimension and its linkage with shopping satisfaction varies across payment options, gender, and returning experience. The poor condition of the shipment might have triggered the returns in e-tailing in the Indian context. The findings will help e-tail managers design a robust logistics network to retain and win despondent customers.     

The Rise of Crowd Logistics: A New Way to Co‐Create Logistics Value

Patterned on crowdsourcing and crowdfunding, a new crowd practice has emerged in recent years: crowd logistics. In this paper, we propose a first conceptualization of this growing phenomenon. Crowd logistics is a novel way of providing logistics services that taps into the dormant logistics resources and capabilities of individuals, using mobile applications and web‐based platforms. Although crowd logistics has been widely discussed in the business world, it has not yet been the subject of any academic publication. Following an exploratory case study approach, we review the websites of 57 crowd logistics initiatives around the world and highlight the main distinctive characteristics of crowd logistics, as compared to traditional business logistics. We introduce a segmented analysis in which crowd logistics solutions are classified according to four types of service offered. Finally, we introduce six theoretical propositions on the future development of crowd logistics. At a theoretical level, our findings contribute to enriching the service‐dominant logic perspective in the logistics field by conceptualizing the crowd as a co‐creator of logistics value. At a managerial level, our findings contribute to identifying which types of crowd logistics services are more likely to threaten or disrupt traditional business.     

Whisper forecasts of earnings per share: Is anyone still listening?

Whisper numbers—unofficial forecasts of earnings per share—were widely reported alongside analyst forecasts and actual earnings in the late 1990s. Bagnoli et al. (1999) showed that whispers appeared to be more accurate than analyst earnings forecasts for a small sample of high-tech firms. We extend their study and investigate whether the superior accuracy of whisper numbers extends to a broader sample, whether whispers have incremental information vis-à-vis analyst forecasts and whether the market rationally uses the information available in whispers. We find that analyst forecasts are more accurate than whispers; however, whisper forecasts contain value-relevant information incremental to analyst forecasts. We also find that the incremental information in whispers is fully incorporated into share price. Lastly we find that whispers are common for firms with lower forecast accuracy, and also that the presence of whispers improves the information environment of firms. Our findings imply that while analyst forecasts are the more accurate expectation of earnings, whispers play a complementary role in providing information about the firm. To the extent that managers convey information to the market in the form of whispers, this study shows that the private information is captured in the share price.     

物流行业税收政策存在的问题及建议探讨

本文针对物流税收政策及偷税漏税现象进行分析,实现物流税收政策的调整,为我国物流行业的发展进一步加快步伐.     

REVERSE LOGISTICS: THE IMPACT OF TIMING AND RESOURCES

Although reverse logistics has become a competitive necessity in many industries, there is a lack of agreement as to when formal reverse logistics programs should be introduced. The current research examines the issue of program introduction timing (first, early, late) in the context of the automobile aftermarket industry. The findings indicate that firms developing formal reverse logistics programs early in their industries – but not first – may be best positioned; however, there is also evidence that the timing/performance relationship can be influenced by resource commitment.     

Small versus large retail stores in an emerging market—Mexico

As emerging markets open, they attract large domestic and international retailers, which compete with traditional local small stores. This study investigates whether this influx of large stores is inevitable, by focusing on consumers' motivation for selecting a retail store, and the association between these motivation dimensions and the shopping patronage. The results from an empirical study conducted in Mexico indicate that consumer's preference for small stores is positively motivated by functional benefits and familiarity with small stores; and negatively associated with the functional benefits offered by large stores. These motivational dimensions are also positively associated with the share of wallet spent at small stores. While gender exhibits mixed effect on preference for small stores and the share of wallet, women do feel that large stores provide better functional benefits and support for the local economy. Finally, the study details the research and managerial implications of the findings.     

构筑食品质量安全可追踪系统研究

近年来,无论是在发达国家还是在发展中国家,频频发生的恶性食品安全事件严重威胁着人类的健康,食品安全形势十分严峻。构筑一个食品质量安全追踪系统,可从生产、加工、流通的各个环节实施节点控制。但是,食品质量安全可追踪系统的建立不仅是一个技术层面问题,还是一个社会、体制问题,因此,需要政府、行业组织、企业的共同努力。     

Subjective Probability Forecasts for Recessions

Probabilistic forecasts are often more useful in business than point forecasts. In this paper, the joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during the next two quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated using various decompositions of the Quadratic Probability Score (QPS). Using the odds ratio and other forecasting accuracy scores appropriate for rare event forecasting, we find that the forecasts have statistically significant accuracy. However, compared to their discriminatory power, these forecasts have excess variability that is caused by relatively low assigned probabilities to forthcoming recessions. We suggest simple guidelines for the use of probability forecasts in practice. JEL Classification E32,E37     

关于建立物流管理会计理论体系的思考

本文认为,制造业企业物流管理会计的建立可以通过大量的走访式调查,形成分类型的制造业企业的物流系统作业项目库、作业资源库、作业成本动因库,制作出分类型的制造业企业物流系统作业问卷调查表寄送各调查单位,通过数据处理得出初步的分类型的制造业企业物流系统作业项目体系,最后经过纠偏得出较理想的分类型的制造业企业物流系统作业项目体系,再根据此作业项目体系,按作业成本法的思想,对传统管理会计中的4大部份内容进行适当修改,形成物流管理会计内容。物流管理会计的研究可通过统计调查法、正交实验法、专家共构法、统计加工法、软系统综合集成法、SWOT矩阵分析法、作业成本法等。     

第三方物流联盟的网络协同模式探讨

第三方物流联盟的网络协同模式是一种新的组织形态。弄清第三方物流联盟的动因及其联盟优势,解释其网络协同现象,建立一个概念模型,总结了网络协同模式四个战略层次,并提出了网络协同的体系结构,为这种新型组织形式的研究提供新思路。