Hedging and value at risk

In this article, it is shown that although minimum‐variance hedging unambiguously reduces the standard deviation of portfolio returns, it can increase both left skewness and kurtosis; consequently the effectiveness of hedging in terms of value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) is uncertain. The reduction in daily standard deviation is compared with the reduction in 1‐day 99% VaR and CVaR for 20 cross‐hedged currency portfolios with the use of historical simulation. On average, minimum‐variance hedging reduces both VaR and CVaR by about 80% of the reduction in standard deviation. Also investigated, as an alternative to minimum‐variance hedging, are minimum‐VaR and minimum‐CVaR hedging strategies that minimize the historical‐simulation VaR and CVaR of the hedge portfolio, respectively. The in‐sample results suggest that in terms of VaR and CVaR reduction, minimum‐VaR and minimum‐CVaR hedging can potentially yield small but consistent improvements over minimum‐variance hedging. The out‐of‐sample results are more mixed, although there is a small improvement for minimum‐VaR hedging for the majority of the currencies considered. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:369–390, 2006     

Hedging long‐term commodity risk: A comment

Y. V. Veld‐Merkoulova and F. A. de Roon (2003) adopted an encompassing model to demonstrate their linear yield assumption on the term structure of futures prices gains more empirical support than the linear price assumption proposed by A. Neuberger (1999). This comment points out the test procedure adopted is inappropriate and proposes an alternative non‐nested hypothesis testing method. Using the crude oil data, we find that the linear price assumption outperforms the linear yield assumption but is inferior to a generalized version of the linear yield assumption. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:1093–1099, 2004     

Hedging long‐term commodity risk

This study focuses on the problem of hedging longer‐term commodity positions, which often arises when the maturity of actively traded futures contracts on this commodity is limited to a few months. In this case, using a rollover strategy results in a high residual risk, which is related to the uncertain futures basis. We use a one‐factor term structure model of futures convenience yields in order to construct a hedging strategy that minimizes both spot‐price risk and rollover risk by using futures of two different maturities. The model is tested using three commodity futures: crude oil, orange juice, and lumber. In the out‐of‐sample test, the residual variance of the 24‐month combined spot‐futures positions is reduced by, respectively, 77%, 47%, and 84% compared to the variance of a naïve hedging portfolio. Even after accounting for the higher trading volume necessary to maintain a two‐contract hedge portfolio, this risk reduction outweighs the extra trading costs for the investor with an average risk aversion. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:109–133, 2003     

Multidimensional Variance‐Optimal Hedging in Discrete‐Time Model—A General Approach

One of the well‐known approaches to the problem of option pricing is a minimization of the global risk, considered as the expected quadratic net loss. In the paper, a multidimensional variant of the problem is studied. To obtain the existence of the variance‐optimal hedging strategy in a model without transaction costs, we can apply the result of Monat and Stricker. Another possibility is a generalization of the nondegeneracy condition that appeared in a paper of Schweizer, in which a one‐dimensional problem is solved. The relationship between the two approaches is shown. A more difficult problem is the existence of an optimal solution in the model with transaction costs. A sufficient condition in a multidimensional case is formulated.     

Diversification potential of Asian frontier,BRIC emerging and major developed stock markets: A wavelet-based value at risk approach

This study examines the portfolio risk and the co-movements between each of the BRIC emerging and South Asian frontier stock markets and each of the major developed stock markets (U.S., UK and Japan), using the wavelet squared coherence approach as well as the wavelet-based Value at Risk (VaR) method. The results show that the co-movements and diversification benefits between these markets vary over time and across frequencies. Additionally, the co-movements are intensified in the wake of the recent global financial crisis (GFC) and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (ESDC). More precisely, the wavelet-based VaR ratio indicates that including a BRIC or a South Asian (particularly Pakistan and Sri Lanka at both the short- and long-term) stock market in a portfolio of the developed stock markets reduces the resulting portfolio's VaR. Specifically, adding China in the medium term to this portfolio reduces risk in the pre- and during both the GFC and ESDC periods. By assigning optimal weights to the different market assets in the portfolio formulation, the analysis thus has implications for international investors.     

A Note on Exports and Hedging Exchange Rate Risks: The Multi‐Country Case

This study examines the behavior of an exporting firm that exports to two foreign countries, each of which has its own currency. Hedging is imperfect in that the firm can only trade one of the two foreign currencies forward. Compared to the case wherein hedging is perfect in that both foreign currencies can be traded forward, the firm is shown to produce less in the home country. Furthermore, the firm is shown to export more (less) to the foreign country whose currency can (cannot) be traded forward. The firm's optimal forward position is an over‐hedge or an under‐hedge, depending on whether the spot exchange rates are positively or negatively correlated in the sense of expectation dependence, respectively. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:1191–1196, 2013     

Relationship between portfolio diversification and value at risk: Empirical evidence

This research explores the risk associated with the stocks prices in the seventeen selected companies that are listed in Indian BSE (100) National as well as portfolios of investment that are constructed from these seventeen companies employed. Additionally, for considering the possibility of international diversification, construction of portfolios of investment form stock price indexes in various emerging markets and developed countries of the world is considered. Correlations for domestically as well as internationally diversified portfolios are computed to unveil the relationship between stock prices of various firms as well as domestic and internationally diversified portfolios of investments. Further, to understand the effect of diversification on the risk associated with each of the portfolios of investments employed, value at risk analysis (VaR) is undertaken for studying the benefits associated with domestic as well as international diversification (if any).The study results show that domestic diversification lowers the expected losses associated with each of the domestic portfolios of investment employed where the international diversification substantially mitigates the portfolio risks. Results from VaR analysis reveal that diversification lowers the portfolio risks and additional reduction in portfolio risks is realized by international diversification.     

Trend and business cycles with external markets: Non‐capacity generating semi‐autonomous expenditures and effective demand

The Global Financial Crisis has underlined the importance of developments in the household sector to explaining macro patterns. Some recent papers have discussed the role of non‐capacity generating semi‐autonomous expenditures in growth theory. This literature ties together several aspects of heterodox thought: growth and distribution; the Sraffian supermultiplier; Duesenberry's relative income hypothesis; the endogenous money approach and Kalecki–Luxemburg external markets. The basic message is that non‐wage sources of effective demand, based on mortgage and consumer credit, can play a key role in inducing capacity investment and driving long‐run output growth. This article gives a broad overview of the role of financed‐induced semi‐autonomous expenditures in growth, cycles and crises, and thus criticizes some of the previous approaches that claim to mimic actual cycles while abstracting from these crucial determinants of economic activity.     

Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis.