CREATING ORDER FORECASTS: POINT‐OF‐SALE OR ORDER HISTORY?

Point‐of‐sale (POS) data, shared by retailers, is often touted as the solution to suppliers' ongoing challenge of accurate order forecasting. However, we find neither empirical evidence of increased order forecast accuracy from the literature, nor consistent use of POS data in suppliers' order forecasting processes. Using a sample containing weekly POS and order data for 10 ready‐to‐eat (RTE) cereal stock‐keeping‐units (SKU's), 7 yogurt SKU's, and 7 canned soup SKU's from 18 retailer distribution centers (DC's) throughout the U.S, our research compares historical POS and order data as order forecasting inputs and finds that POS data does not always outperform order data in terms of order forecast accuracy. While we did find that POS data is a better forecast input in a majority of the forecasts and that on average POS data produces a lower order forecast error, we find that there remain a large number of forecasts where order data is a better predictor than is POS data. Hence, we operationalize this comparison in terms of the frequency and magnitude of order forecast improvement based on POS data. We then hypothesize affecting factors and empirically test these relationships.     

THE IMPACT OF CUSTOMER RESPONSE ON INVENTORY AND UTILIZATION POLICIES

Drawing on extensive fieldwork at a semiconductor manufacturer, this research provides a framework for understanding how customer response and long production delays interact, leading to increased demand amplification across a company's supply chain. Investigating the impact resulting from the higher demand amplification, suggestions are derived for the company's capacity utilization and inventory policies     

VENDOR‐OWNED INVENTORY MANAGEMENT ARRANGEMENTS IN RETAIL: AN AGENCY THEORY PERSPECTIVE

This paper undertakes two related tasks to augment current understanding regarding vendor‐owned inventory management (VOIM) arrangements implemented in the retail industry. The first task formally juxtaposes three prevalent forms of VOIM arrangements (i.e., Consignment, Pay‐On‐Scan, and Scan‐Based Trading) to one another and identifies three dimensions (i.e., Relevant Data Visibility, Timeliness of Information Release, and Shrink Responsibility) that serve to discriminate among them. The second task applies an Agency Theory lens to uncover differing profiles of characteristics underlying the retailer‐vendor relationship across the Consignment, Pay‐On‐Scan, and Scan‐Based Trading arrangements. These conceptual results contribute to and have implications for the science and practice of VOIM arrangements in the retail industry.     

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE EFFECT OF FULL‐SCALE SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE ADOPTIONS ON INVENTORY BALANCES AND TURNS

Supply chain management (SCM) software vendors, analysts, and others claim that firms implementing SCM software stand to benefit by being able to reduce inventory holdings and increase inventory turns. We theorize that full‐scale implementations lead to system‐wide inventory optimization, which in turn leads to cost improvement associated with inventory balances and turns. To examine the question, we develop an analytical model of inventory optimization, then analyze the effects of the model with a numerical experiment, and finally confirm the results with an empirical examination. We find that firm‐wide implementation is significant in explaining improvement in inventory metrics, relative to pre‐implementation metrics for our sample. Our empirical tests indicate that implementing SCM software across only a portion of the firm does not impact inventory metrics, but that the scale of implementation does. More precisely, we find that firms implementing SCM software across the entire company significantly improve both inventory turns and inventory as a percent of revenue relative to partially‐implementing firms and non‐implementers.     

A COMPARISON OF THE ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY AND QUICK RESPONSE INVENTORY REPLENISHMENT METHODS

When determining order quantity, logistics managers can choose between ordering the Economic Order quantity (EOQ) or a Quick Response (QR) quantity. QR is a general term that collectively describes several rapid‐replenishment inventory methods such as Just‐In‐Time or Continuous Replenishment. The QR order quantity is defined as the minimum inventory needed to support operations until the next delivery. The EOQ and the QR methods are substantially different because the EOQ minimizes the joint cost of ordering and holding inventory whereas the QR method minimizes only the cost of holding inventory. The goals of this research are to compare the costs of the two methods and to propose rules that help managers select the more appropriate method to use in specific situations.     

THE IMPACT OF DEMAND UNCERTAINTY AND CONFIGURATION CAPACITY ON CUSTOMER SERVICE PERFORMANCE IN A CONFIGURE‐TO‐ORDER ENVIRONMENT

This paper examines the simultaneous impact of demand variability, demand skew, and configuration capacity on customer service in a configure‐to‐order environment. Simulation is done in ARENA and data are analyzed using ANOVA and MANOVA. The findings indicate that the factors studied have differential impact on performance both individually and interactively.     

THE IMPACT OF SARBANES‐OXLEY ON OFF‐BALANCE SHEET SUPPLY CHAIN ACTIVITIES

This study seeks to provide readers with an overview of sections 401, 404 and 802 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act as they pertain to supply chain managers, while empirically assessing the impact of SOX on some of the most common off‐balance sheet supply activities from familiarity, compliance, and time spent perspectives. Agency theory is used to provide the theoretical foundations for this study. The results of this study provide important implications for supply managers such as that stronger SOX compliance has a positive impact on off‐balance sheet activities.     

三峡库区城市生活垃圾处理状况调查与分析

三峡库区城市生活垃圾存在总量不断增加、构成复杂化、管理体制不合适、处理效率不高、对库区水体环境污染加剧等问题,应该从完善法律体系、建立健全垃圾处理收费制度、垃圾减量化管理和实施库区垃圾处理市场化、产业化等方面着手解决。     

PRICE‐ADMISSIBILITY CONDITIONS FOR ARBITRAGE‐FREE LINEAR PRICE FUNCTION MODELS FOR THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

To assure price admissibility—that all bond prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive—we show how to control the state variables within the class of arbitrage‐free linear price function models for the evolution of interest rate yield curves over time. Price admissibility is necessary to preclude cash‐and‐carry arbitrage, a market imperfection that can happen even with a risk‐neutral diffusion process and positive bond prices. We assure price admissibility by (i) defining the state variables to be scaled partial sums of weighted coefficients of the exponential terms in the bond pricing function, (ii) identifying a simplex within which these state variables remain price admissible, and (iii) choosing a general functional form for the diffusion that selectively diminishes near the simplex boundary. By assuring that prices, yields, and forward rates remain positive with tractable diffusions for the physical and risk‐neutral measures, an obstacle is removed from the wider acceptance of interest rate methods that are linear in prices.     

WEB‐BASED AND MAIL SURVEYS: A COMPARISON OF RESPONSE,DATA, AND COST

The mail survey is the most common data collection technique used by logistics researchers today. Many researchers have noted that response rates to mail surveys have been declining. The Internet offers logistics researchers several potential advantages over traditional mail surveys. This research compares these two methods across response rates, speed of response, consistency of results, and cost. The research also provides unique insight regarding the ability of electronic methods to gain interest and subsequent participation among potential respondents thereby helping in theory testing.     

A MODEL‐FREE VERSION OF THE FUNDAMENTAL THEOREM OF ASSET PRICING AND THE SUPER‐REPLICATION THEOREM

We propose a Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing and a Super‐Replication Theorem in a model‐independent framework. We prove these theorems in the setting of finite, discrete time and a market consisting of a risky asset S as well as options written on this risky asset. As a technical condition, we assume the existence of a traded option with a superlinearly growing payoff‐function, e.g., a power option. This condition is not needed when sufficiently many vanilla options maturing at the horizon T are traded in the market.     

THE INCENTIVES OF HEDGE FUND FEES AND HIGH‐WATER MARKS

Hedge fund managers receive a large fraction of their funds' profits, paid when funds exceed their high‐water marks. We study the incentives of such performance fees. A manager with long‐horizon, constant investment opportunities and relative risk aversion, chooses a constant Merton portfolio. However, the effective risk aversion shrinks toward one in proportion to performance fees. Risk shifting implications are ambiguous and depend on the manager's own risk aversion. Managers with equal investment opportunities but different performance fees and risk aversions may coexist in a competitive equilibrium. The resulting leverage increases with performance fees—a prediction that we confirm empirically.     

THE STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL OF BARNDORFF‐NIELSEN AND SHEPHARD IN COMMODITY MARKETS

We consider the non‐Gaussian stochastic volatility model of Barndorff‐Nielsen and Shephard for the exponential mean‐reversion model of Schwartz proposed for commodity spot prices. We analyze the properties of the stochastic dynamics, and show in particular that the log‐spot prices possess a stationary distribution defined as a normal variance‐mixture model. Furthermore, the stochastic volatility model allows for explicit forward prices, which may produce a hump structure inherited from the mean‐reversion of the stochastic volatility. Although the spot price dynamics has continuous paths, the forward prices will have a jump dynamics, where jumps occur according to changes in the volatility process. We compare with the popular Heston stochastic volatility dynamics, and show that the Barndorff‐Nielsen and Shephard model provides a more flexible framework in describing commodity spot prices. An empirical example on UK spot data is included.     

AN ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR THE TWO‐SIDED PARISIAN STOPPING TIME,ITS ASYMPTOTICS,AND THE PRICING OF PARISIAN OPTIONS

In this paper, we obtain a recursive formula for the density of the two‐sided Parisian stopping time. This formula does not require any numerical inversion of Laplace transforms, and is similar to the formula obtained for the one‐sided Parisian stopping time derived in Dassios and Lim. However, when we study the tails of the two distributions, we find that the two‐sided stopping time has an exponential tail, while the one‐sided stopping time has a heavier tail. We derive an asymptotic result for the tail of the two‐sided stopping time distribution and propose an alternative method of approximating the price of the two‐sided Parisian option.