From protectionism to free trade fever? Recent reforms in developing countries

During the 1980s, increasing numbers of developing countries unilaterally liberalized their trade regimes. This paper presents an overview of this dramatic shift from protectionism toward freer trade. South Asia, Latin America, and East Asia have implemented extensive reforms, yet each region has shown a distinct difference in approach and in the degree of liberalization actually achieved. Latin America stands out as moving sharply toward the level of openness of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries (NICs). Only in Africa is there little progress toward freer trade.     

The political economy of trade liberalization in developing countries

The paper addresses the issue of trade liberalization in developing countries from a political economy perspective using the theory of collective action. The role of collective action and interest group behavior is analysed critically both with respect to the initiation of attemps at liberalization and its outcome in terms of success or failure. A probit model is then used to test empirically the various hypotheses as to the determinants of likelihood of success of liberalization attempts. A sample of 51 liberalization episodes relating to 24 countries and spanning the period 1950–80 is used. Five factors are found to be critical in the process of liberalization: the strength of exporters groups as represented by the diversification and importance of manufactures and traditional exports, the strength of import-competing sector's opposition as measured by the share of manufacturing in GDP, the time elapsed since the beginning of import substitution, the size of country and the leadership committment and role.     

Free trade and income redistribution in some developing and newly industrialized countries

A competitive general equilibrium model of production is specified and the long-run comparative static elasticities of changing prices on factor prices are examined in eight developing and newly industrialized countries. Unskilled labor in these developing countries stands to gain from a program of global free trade characterized by increased manufacturing exports and falling prices of imported business services, while capital owners and skilled labor lose. Results are contrasted with developed countries, the United States in particular, where unskilled labor will lose while capital and skilled labor enjoy gains with global free trade.     

中国-东盟服务贸易自由化程度的评估与分析

《中国—东盟全面经济合作框架协议服务贸易协议》的签署开启了中国与东盟服务贸易自由化的进程。本文评估了中国-东盟服务贸易自由化的程度,并与韩国-东盟、澳新-东盟服务贸易自由化程度进行比较,说明中国-东盟服务贸易自由化的特征。通过RCA指标测量了中国与东盟各国服务贸易总体竞争力和部门竞争力,以说明中国与东盟服务贸易自由化程度及其相关性,从而揭示中国-东盟服务贸易自由化的前景。     

发展中国家的地区开放经济发展模式探讨——以"泉州模式"为例

本文以″泉州模式″作为个案进行深入剖析,实证地研究发展中国家的地区开放经济发展模式与经济成功发展的联系,并从理论上分析发展中国家经济发展成功模式的内在机理。     

Globalization, Growth, and the Poor

This paper discusses the possible causal relationships and empirical associations between globalization and growth, growth and poverty reduction, and, finally, globalization and poverty reduction. We argue that globalization can contribute much to poverty reduction both directly and by accelerating growth. Second, the contributions of redistributive policies are very likely to be less than the contribution of greater access to markets, more competitive insurance and financial markets, and improved institutions to poverty reduction. The potential effect of greater international integration on poverty reduction, however, is limited by domestic policy failures in developing countries and also by continued protectionism, particularly in developed countries.     

Hungary's export prospects in the EC market

Political changes in Eastern Europe will help to cement improving economic relations between those countries and the EC, accelerating a trend that flows in part from the continuing economic difficulties in Eastern Europe. Hungary has little alternative but to seek to continue strengthening these ties. Membership in the EC could lead to an expansion of Hungarian exports to the Communities of some 48 percent, with the main gains occurring for meats, iron and steel, fruit and vegetables, textiles, and clothing. Even if membership is unattainable, Hungary stands to gain considerably from an improvement in its standing in the EC pyramid of privileges, and must seek some closer relationship with the EC, encompassing agriculture as well as manufactures, and tariffs and non-tariff barriers.     

空间经济理论对发展中国家(地区)贸易政策启示

世界经济全球化条件下,发展中国家(地区)贸易政策选择面临诸多挑战。本文通过分析空间经济理论的理论基础及其分析框架,揭示其中蕴含的理论政策意义,提出发展中国家(地区)贸易政策选择应多样化。     

Effective rates of protection revisited for Indonesia

This paper calculates nominal and effective rates of protection for Indonesian tradables sectors in early 2008, and compares these figures with previous calculations for 1987 and 1995. Such a review is overdue. Many non-tariff barriers to imports and exports have been abolished, though new import restraints on rice and sugar are notable exceptions to this trend. Import tariffs have been lowered, particularly through regional preferential trade arrangements. We account for such arrangements in two different ways. Export taxes persist in certain natural resources sectors, but most rates have been reduced. We find that more than half of the effective support provided to tradable products sectors now comes from subsidies on fuels, fertiliser, electricity and liquefied petroleum gas, rather than from trade policies per se. Duty drawbacks and exemptions for exporters boost the effective rate of protection for tradables sectors overall by a small fraction of 1%, and for no input–output sector by more than 3%.     

The politics of social protection expenditure and financing in southern Africa

Social protection is expanding in southern Africa, but consideration of its fiscal base is usually limited to affordability concerns. Little attention is paid to the different sources of revenue or how the interests of contributors to social protection may affect spending priorities. This article suggests there is a link between revenue source and social protection spending. Aid dependent countries' social protection policy is mostly determined by donors. The governments of countries that rely on natural resources or Southern African Customs Union revenue are relatively free to shape social protection policy. Only in countries that rely on domestic tax-based revenue, where the government must consider the interests of the taxpayer, is there something resembling a social contract for social protection, in which the citizens engage with their government through an exchange-based logic. This article concludes that a broad and diversified tax base is an important mechanism for creating a reciprocal relationship of this kind and thus increasing social spending.     

How trade in ecotourism services can save nature: a policy scenario analysis

This article considers a developing country which is abundant in a non-renewable natural resource but scarce in industrial goods. The resource can be used for consumption or for exporting ecotourism services. The article examines scenarios in which technical progress, rising demand for tourism services and higher preferences for the environment reduce today's optimal depletion of the resource. Myopic behaviour and future terms-of-trade gains, however, encourage overexploitation of the resource. As a remedy, the article derives the socially optimal subsidy for the conservation of the resource and discusses North–South transfer schemes which save nature via trade in ecotourism services. Numerical examples suggest that under optimistic assumptions a subsidy rate of about 10% would suffice to preserve the natural resource in the developing country for the provision of tourism services. The resulting cost burden would represent less than 0.03% of the Northern GDP.     

中国与东盟国家果蔬贸易自由化博弈分析

中国与东盟国家在果蔬产品上具有很强的互补性,通过中国-东盟自由贸易区的不断发展,中国与东盟国家果蔬产品贸易自由化在博弈中也取得了很大的发展,本文讨论了中国与东盟国家果蔬贸易的"囚徒困境"和中国充当"智猪博弈"中的大猪的情况,并分析了充当大猪后中国的收益,最后总结中国在进一步博弈中的策略取向。     

发展中国家贸易战略的效应分析

20世纪50年代以来,发展中国家为改变自身畸形的经济结构,改变自身在国际分工中的不利地位,从未间断探索适合本国经济发展的道路.在贸易战略上,发展中国家经历了初级产品出口导向型战略、进口替代型战略到出口导向型战略的转变.文章以发展中国家贸易战略的演变为线索,以发展的眼光多角度的评论这三种贸易战略的效应.     

Economic growth and the rise of protectionism and urban unrest in developing economies

This paper examines how economic growth can affect various political actors and influence trade and labor policies in a developing economy. The paper extends the Findlay-Wellisz (1982) model of endogenous trade policy to include the endogenous determination of an urban-rural wage differential along lines suggestive of the Harris-Todaro (1970) model. Under assumptions normally associated with developing economies, the model shows that growth, stimulated primarily by capital formation, can lead to the rise of protectionism and urban unrest.     

Going beyond Cancun: Realizing the development promise of the Doha agenda

The launch of a new trade round in Doha in November 2001 was a major breakthrough following the discord in Seattle in 1999. The Doha Round is the first set of multilateral trade negotiations in which the needs and interests of developing countries have been officially declared a priority and whose conclusion deemed essential. However, the failure of the Doha negotiations in Cancun in September 2003 was a major setback. The trade talks are now stalled in several policy domains vital to developing countries such as agriculture, non‐farm trade, access to patented drugs, special and differential treatment and dispute settlement, and in areas of interest to the developed countries such as the “Singapore issues” dealing with investment, competition, trade facilitation and government procurement This paper discusses the reasons behind the failure, its wider implications as well as the policies that member governments of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will need to make to move beyond Cancun.     

Trade policy and protection in the European Community

The European Community is the world's largest trading entity. As a result, trade policy in the EC has an important impact on the world economy. This paper evaluates the formulation of trade policy in the EC and assesses the key instruments, both by sector and by target. The relative importance of tariff and non-tariff barriers is emphasised as is the role of anti-dumping. Finally, the impact of the single market programme and the Uruguay Round are assessed. Both will have a crucial bearing on the evolution of policy.