Optimal management of a flammable forest providing timber and carbon sequestration benefits: an Australian case study*

In deciding to keep or fell a forest stand given its age, the risk of loss of timber through wildfire is an important consideration. If trees also have value from sequestration of carbon, another effect of fire is the unplanned loss of stored carbon. Factors affecting the decision to keep or fell trees, and how much to spend on fire protection, are investigated using stochastic dynamic programming, using carbon sequestration in stands of mountain ash in Victoria as a case study. The effect of treating sawlogs as a permanent carbon sink after harvesting is explored.     

Designing afforestation subsidies that account for the benefits of carbon sequestration: A case study using data from China's Loess Plateau

This paper presents a method for determining the subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in timber afforestation programs designed to maximize social well-being. The method incorporates a carbon sequestration benefit function into the land expected value model in order to quantify the social benefit arising from carbon sequestration by the planted trees. This is used to calculate the optimal rotation age for newly planted forests that maximizes social utility. The minimum subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in the afforestation program was calculated using a modified decision model that accounts for the subsidy's impact. The maximum subsidy offered by the government was taken to be the NPV of the carbon sequestration achieved by afforestation. Data on Robinia pseudoacacia L. trees planted on the Loess Plateau were used in an empirical test of the model, which in this case predicts an optimal subsidy of 254.38 yuan/ha over 40 years. This would guarantee the maintenance of forest on land designated for afforestation until they reached the socially optimal rotation age. The method presented herein offers a new framework for designing afforestation subsidy programs that account for the environmental service (specially, the carbon sequestration) provided by forests.     

UK land use and soil carbon sequestration

This review explores the role of land use and land use change as a determinant of the soil's ability to sequester and store carbon in the UK. Over 95 percent of the UK land carbon stock is located in soils which are subjected to a range of land uses and global changes. Land use change can result in rapid soil loss of carbon from peatlands, grasslands, plantation forest and native woodland. Soil carbon accumulates more slowly (decadal) but gains can be made when croplands are converted to grasslands, plantation forest or native woodland. The need for land for food production and renewable forms of energy could have considerable influence on UK soil carbon storage in the future. There is a need to recognise the risk of soil carbon losses occurring when land use change to increase carbon storage is offset by compensatory land use conversions elsewhere that result in net carbon release. The protection of peatland and other organic soil carbon stocks, and the management of cropland, grassland and forest soils to increase carbon sequestration, will be crucial to the maintenance of the UK carbon balance. It will be necessary to develop policy to balance trade-offs between soil carbon gains with other land use priorities. These include the sustainable production of food, bio-energy and fibre crops and livestock, water quality and hydrology, greenhouse gas emission control and waste management, all of which are underpinned by the soil.     

The sustainability of timber production from Eastern Amazonian forests

Although the regulations are imperfectly enforced, logging firms in the Brazilian Amazon are subject to forest management regulations intended to reduce environmental damage and protect future forest productivity. Additionally, voluntary best practices firms adopt to achieve environmental performance that exceed regulatory requirements are largely limited to reduced impact logging (RIL) systems that reduce harvest damage relative to conventional logging systems used by a large majority of firms in the region. Existing regulations combined with best practices may not be adequate to ensure sustained yields. This inadequacy is an important issue as Brazil implements an ambitious program of forest concessions on public lands. We analyze the profitability and environmental outcomes of best logging practices and proposed sustainability requirements. We propose two operational definitions of sustainability (the first focusing on sustaining stand-level timber volumes and the other focusing on sustaining species-level volumes within the stand) based on sustaining timber inventories across cutting cycles rather than on sustaining overall harvest yields. RIL is shown to be profitable for loggers and increase the timber available for future harvests. While volume predicted to be available for the second and third harvests are significantly lower than the available timber in the unlogged forest, the second and third harvests are projected to be profitable and have the potential for sustainability despite high opportunity costs. However, as harvesting is repeated into the future, results show the composition of the harvest shifts from higher-value shade-tolerant and emergent species toward a greater reliance on longer-lived, lower-value pioneer species. This shift may create pressure to expand the forest base under management in order to continue to supply high-value species or increase the risk of timber trespass in conservation units and areas under community or indigenous management.     

The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Afforestation with carbon sequestration and land use policy in Northern Ireland

In forestry Northern Ireland is one of the most impoverished parts of the European Union as well as the United Kingdom. During the last 10–15 years as afforestation projects gathered speed in many parts of the British Isles there has been no notable change in Ulster. One main contributor to this problem was the political uncertainty and violence which has now largely been remedied since the establishment of the devolved government in 2007.     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.     

Economic impacts of adjacency and green-up constraints on timber production at a landscape scale

Although many different forest certification standards exist, harvest adjacency and green-up regulations are common to most certifying bodies. This study develops a means for evaluating trade-offs associated with implementation of nth-order adjacency and green-up constraints on a 1.7 million ha landscape in Oregon in the US. Depending on the type of adjacency structure and delay between harvests, the opportunity cost of the restrictions, estimated by the change in discounted sum of producer and consumer surplus in the regional log market, ranged from 0.25% to 66% (or US $60 million to $15.3 billion) of the unconstrained value. Increasing green-up delays beyond 30–40 years had little effect on estimated opportunity cost of the modeled restrictions.     

我国碳汇渔业发展对策研究

为了应对气候变暖危机,中国率先提出碳汇渔业概念并倡导大力发展。我国发展碳汇渔业一方面能发挥渔业基础资源和人才技术优势,带动科技进步和经济发展,拉动就业。但另一方面存在管理方式和制度粗放,供应链环节薄弱的劣势和来自国际、市场环境的风险。通过对碳汇渔业发展的优势机遇和劣势风险分析,提出保持渔业资源、技术优势,同时建立渔业人才库的进取型战略;政府提供财政补贴,同时完善渔业碳汇计量体系的抵御型战略;加强碳汇渔业主体海水养殖业供应链的管理信息化,同时提高渔民技能的调整型战略;引进海洋牧场等低碳渔业,同时加强网络信息决策服务的增强型战略。四大战略共举,为我国碳汇渔业可持续发展提供有力保障。     

Economic value of carbon sequestration in forests under multiple sources of uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to calculate the value of stochastic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation when also carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and abatement costs are stochastic. The replacement cost method is used where the value of carbon sink is calculated as associated cost savings from replacement of more expensive mitigation options for achieving a given emission target. Minimum costs with and without carbon sinks are derived with a safety-first approach in a chance constrained programming framework which also accounts for variability in control costs. The theoretical results show that for high enough risk discount, carbon sink is not included in a cost effective mitigation program even when the carbon sink cost is zero. The empirical application to the EU independent commitment of 20% reduction in carbon dioxides shows large variation in carbon sink value depending on risk discount. Under no uncertainty, the value can correspond to 0.33% of total GDP in EU, but it declines due to the uncertainty associated with forest carbon sink and is zero for high probability levels in achieving the target. Thus, whether or not to recommend the inclusion of carbon sink in the EU climate policy depends on the uncertainty of carbon sinks in relation to other sources and on the importance of reaching stipulated emission reduction targets.     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

Forestry in the Republic of Ireland: Government policy,grant incentives and carbon sequestration value

Recent decades have seen a rapid increase in the area of privately owned forest plantations in Ireland. This has been largely driven by grant aid and annual premium payments from the government and the European Union. These forests are significant carbon sinks and as such are delivering added benefit to the country by contributing to greenhouse gas reductions under the Kyoto Protocol.The direct impact of government subvention on the net present value (NPV) for a defined forestry plantation is investigated. The added value of carbon sequestration to forestry investment is also examined using the Forestry Commission (Great Britain) carbon model. Extending the typical assumption of a constant carbon price for project appraisal purposes, this paper allows carbon prices to evolve randomly according to a flexible stochastic price process. The model chosen is an extended mean-reverting jump-diffusion with the flexibility to capture the higher order statistical features (i.e. skewness and kurtosis) of the carbon markets. This allows for an analysis of the risk and uncertainty around the NPV from exposure to stochastic carbon prices. It is shown that government grants and annual premiums for afforestation significantly improve the NPV on forestry investment. Carbon sequestration is shown to add further value.     

Economics of carbon sequestration in community forests: Evidence from REDD+ piloting in Nepal

Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) has been piloted in developing countries as a climate change mitigation strategy, providing financial incentives for carbon sequestration in forests. This paper examines the economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests within two watersheds in central Nepal, Ludikhola and Kayarkhola, using data on forest product demand, carbon sequestration, carbon price and REDD+ related costs. The benefits of REDD+ are about $7994, $152, and $64 per community forest, per hectare of forest area, and per household in Ludikhola watershed compared to $4815, $29, and $56 in Kayarkhola watershed, respectively, under the business-as-usual scenario. Compared to the EU ETS carbon price ($10.3/tCO₂e), the average break-even carbon price in community forests is much higher in Kayarkhola watershed ($41.8/tCO₂e) and much lower in Ludikhola watershed ($2.4/tCO₂e) when empirical estimates of annual expenditure in community forests are included in the analysis. The incorporation of annual expenditure estimates and opportunity cost of sequestered carbon (in the form of firewood prices in local markets) in the analysis suggests that community forests are economically infeasible for REDD+ at the prevailing carbon prices. The implication of our findings is that economic feasibility of REDD+ in community forests depends on the local contexts, carbon prices and the opportunity costs, which should be carefully considered in designing REDD+ projects.     

The carbon footprints of food crop production

The agriculture sector contributes significantly to global carbon emissions from diverse sources such as product and machinery manufacture, transport of materials and direct and indirect soil greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we use farm survey data from the east of Scotland combined with published estimates of emissions for individual farm operations to quantify the relative contribution of a range of farming operations and determine the carbon footprint of different crops (e.g. legumes, winter and spring cereals, oilseed rape, potato) and farming practices (conventional, integrated and organic). Over all crops and farm types, 75% of the total emissions result from nitrogen fertilizer use (both organic and inorganic)—from production, application, and direct nitrous oxide emissions from the soil resulting from application. Once nitrogen is accounted for, there are no major differences between organic, integrated or conventional farming practices. These data highlight opportunities for carbon mitigation and will be of value for inclusion in full life cycle analyses of arable production systems and in calculations of greenhouse gas balance associated with land-use change.     

水电工程移民生产安置人口计算的新思路

土地是农民赖以生存的根本,土地收入直接决定可供养的人口,而土地的收益与土地面积、质量、利用方式、经营活动等经济要素紧密相关。征收土地的收入情况可以客观、全面反映水电工程中需要安置的人口,具有一定的参考价值。结合工作实践探讨现行生产安置人口计算方法及其适用性,并综合考虑土地质量差异、土地多种利用方式及农民对土地依赖程度等因素,从土地收入角度出发提出生产安置人口计算方法的新思路,可较为全面反映征收土地对应的实际生产安置人口,减小生产安置人口计算误差,并以青海省D水电站和西藏自治区E水电站为例进行生产安置人口计算的差异性分析。     

Trade-offs between carbon sequestration and rural incomes in the N’hambita Community Carbon Project, Mozambique

This paper presents a preliminary assessment of trade-offs between carbon sequestration and farmers’ incomes from land-use systems implemented in a community-based project, in Mozambique. Systems either focus on carbon sequestration or combine sequestration with cash crop cultivation. The latter provide carbon payments with potential income from cash crop sales. Uncertainty about the future costs and benefits of maintaining and utilizing the land-use systems over time is addressed via application of Monte Carlo simulations. Our results show that compared with sequestration-only systems those that combine sequestration and cash crop production have higher net benefits, although they have less carbon-sequestration potential. Homestead planting provides the most attractive balance among competing policy goals. Carbon payments contribute to cash income and may enable smallholders to overcome initial project investment costs.     

An open-access method for targeting revegetation based on potential for emissions reduction,carbon sequestration and opportunity cost

We propose a simple heuristic that uses open-access models and government data on agricultural activities to estimate total carbon emissions from agriculture, the gross carbon benefit and the opportunity cost per tonne CO₂-e from revegetating to environmental plantings or plantation forestry. We test this across ten areas of mixed land-use that represent diverse Australian agricultural systems along a rainfall transect. The local value of agricultural production was obtained from government statistics and used to estimate the current economic opportunity cost of converting cleared agricultural land to mixed environmental plantings for carbon sequestration. Gross carbon benefit from revegetation was closely related to current agricultural use, as was financial opportunity cost. These were not related simply to site productivity potential or rainfall. The proportion of land cleared for agriculture that would need to be re-vegetated to achieve a localised zero-carbon land-use scenario was calculated by the ratio of current agricultural emissions to gross carbon benefit from revegetation; this ranged from 13% to 66% for groups of agricultural industries across Australian rainfall transects. While the heuristic does not capture the detail of models built specifically for local research questions it does provide a different lens on the questions policy makers and land managers may ask about the costs and benefits of revegetating agricultural land, and provides open-access methods to guide them.     

关于水利水电工程农村移民生产安置人口的若干问题思考

从水利水电工程移民生产安置人口的概念和计算方法出发,分析生产安置人口在移民安置规划中的作用和存在问题,并提出在不同生产安置方式下和不同水利水电工程类型情况下,生产安置人口的处理方式。     

Estimated participation in U.S. carbon sequestration programs: A study of NIPF landowners in Massachusetts

Although carbon sequestration programs for non-industrial forestland owners in Massachusetts are being developed, very little is known about the program attributes of importance to different types of landowners or the likelihood that landowners will participate in any given program. This study estimates the probability that Massachusetts landowners will participate in several carbon offset programs using data from a survey of 3000 Massachusetts forestland owners. Results from an ordered logit discrete choice model suggest that the likelihood of enrollment in most programs is quite low. Landowners are clearly motivated by economic factors, but other aspects of carbon sequestration may also be important in their decision making.