Incomplete interest rate pass-through under credit and labor market frictions

By introducing search and matching frictions in both the labor and the credit markets into a cash in advance New Keynesian DSGE model, we provide a novel explanation of the incomplete pass-through from policy rates to loan rates. We show that this phenomenon is ineradicable if banks possess some power in the bargaining over the loan rate of interest, if the cost of posting job vacancies is positive and if firms and banks sustain costs when searching for lines of credit and when posting credit vacancies, respectively. We also show that the presence of credit market frictions moderates the reactions of employment and wages to a monetary shock. Finally, we confirm the finding that pass-through incompleteness has limited short-term impacts on the transmission of monetary policy shocks to output and inflation.     

A structural model of cost pass-through: the case of the US yogurt retailing

We provide a structural framework for retail cost pass-through based on a neoclassical inverse demand model and retail profit maximization conditions. Unlike previous literature where game-theoretic structures are imposed on cost pass-through, our framework allows for estimating cost pass-through and the degree of market competition simultaneously. Further, our model incorporates potential cross-brand effects representing demand substitution and strategic complementarity effects. Our model supplements the traditional reduced-form approach to pass-through and is applicable in environments, where the lack of brand-level cost data renders reduced-form analysis infeasible. The empirical value of our model is illustrated in an econometric analysis of retail pass-through for national and store brand yogurt. Our results indicate that: (1) market competition has a positive impact on own-brand cost pass-through, especially for national brands, and (2) overlooking cross-brand effects results in biased own-brand pass-through estimates. Finally, we provide a graphical illustration of the relationship between cost pass-through and market competition.     

The effect of regulatory scrutiny: Asymmetric cost pass-through in power wholesale and its end

We find an asymmetric pass-through of European emission allowance (EUA) prices to wholesale electricity prices in Germany and show that this asymmetry disappeared in response to a report on investigations by the competition authority. The asymmetric pricing pattern, however, was not detected at the time of the report, nor had it been part of the investigations. Our results therefore provide evidence for the deterring effect of regulatory monitoring on firms which exhibit non-competitive pricing behavior. We do not find any asymmetric pass-through of EUA prices in recent years. Several robustness checks support our results.     

Bank behavior, incomplete interest rate pass-through, and the cost channel of monetary policy transmission

This paper employs a New Keynesian DSGE model to explore the role of banks within the cost channel of monetary policy transmission for shaping the interest rate pass-through from money market rates to loan rates. Banks extend loans to firms in an environment of monopolistic competition by setting their loan rates in a staggered way, which means that the adjustment of the aggregate loan rate to a monetary policy shock is sticky. We estimate the model for the euro area by adopting a minimum distance approach. Our findings exhibit that (i) financial costs are an important factor for price changes, (ii) frictions in the loan market have an effect on the propagation of monetary policy shocks as the pass-through from a change in money market rates to loan rates is incomplete, and (iii) the strength of the cost channel is mitigated as banks shelter firms from monetary policy shocks by smoothing loan rates.     

Tobin's Q channel and monetary policy rules under incomplete exchange rate pass-through

This paper focuses on the role of the Tobin's Q channel in a two-country framework in which exporting firms set their prices on the basis of local currency pricing. Incomplete exchange rate pass-through significantly affects the Tobin's Q channel in each country compared with the case of complete exchange rate pass-through. We explore whether different specifications of monetary policy enhance social welfare. Regardless of the degree of home bias, a monetary policy rule that stabilizes domestic asset prices attains preferable outcomes to several alternative policy rules considered in our analysis. Notably, there are large gains from employing a domestic asset price rule when the home bias is large. A monetary policy rule that stabilizes the asset prices of both countries results in worse outcomes. Our simulation results suggest that stabilizing asset prices is important in an open economy with incomplete exchange rate pass-through.     

Double marginalization and cost pass-through: Weyl–Fabinger and Cowan meet Spengler and Bresnahan–Reiss

Consider the classical double marginalization problem of single-product successive monopolies. We show that the ratio of the cost pass-through at the final sale relative to that at the wholesale level is characterized by the curvature of inverse demand in the final market. We also apply Cowan’s (2012) method, which utilizes the idea of pass-through in an analysis of third-degree price discrimination, to compare consumer surplus under vertical integration and separation.     

Price-Matching Guarantees and Entry Deterrence under Incomplete Information

This paper studies price-matching guarantees in a market where entrant does not have perfect information about incumbent’s cost. The low-cost incumbent can adopt price-matching guarantees as a signal to distinguish itself from the high-cost type and thus effectively deter entry. On the other hand, the high-cost incumbent can successfully fool the potential entrant under certain conditions. Compared with the equilibriums in situations where the option of offering a price guarantee is not available, the use of this instrument either makes it easier for the low-cost incumbent to signal its cost, or expands the range of parameters over which the high-cost incumbent is able to deter entry successfully.     

Exchange-rate pass-through and market structure

We consider a situation in whichn firms located in market 1 andm firms located in market 2 each sell a commodity which is homogeneous within each market but may differ between markets. All firms sell on both markets. Each market has its own currency. The market demand functions differ. We give some basic results on the effects of exchange-rate changes and then show the following. When these markets are independent on the cost side (constant marginal costs) and demands are linear, a reduction in the number of firms (which might result from a merger) in market 1 increases the pass-through (of an appreciation of currency 2) in market 1 and decreases the pass-through in market 2. A similar occurrence in market 2 has the opposite effect. We give conditions under which, with identical economies of scope linking the markets, the sign of the price changes will be reversed when the number of foreign firms is small enough compared to the number of local firms. However, such sign reversals cannot occur in the two markets simultaneously.     

The effects of exchange rate pass-through and cost channel on price level: The case of fragile five countries

ABSTRACT

In this study, we investigated whether the exchange rate and the interest rate had an effect on the inflation rate in the fragile five countries between the years of 1996Q4 and 2015Q4. In this context, a model was created to estimate the effect of interest rate and exchange rate on the inflation rate. The methods used in the study take into account cross-section dependence and heterogeneity. As a result of the analysis, it was determined that there was an exchange-rate and interest-rate pass-through effect in the fragile five countries. Moreover, it was found out that the cost channel and price puzzle were effective in Indonesia and South Africa but were not effective in Turkey, Brasil and India.     

Optimal collusion under cost asymmetry

Cost asymmetry is generally thought to hinder collusion because a more efficient firm has both more to gain from deviations and less to fear from retaliation than less efficient firms. Our paper reexamines this conventional wisdom and characterizes optimal collusion without any prior restriction on the class of strategies. We stress that firms can credibly agree on retaliation schemes that maximally punish even the most efficient firm. This implies that whenever collusion is sustainable under cost symmetry, some collusion is also sustainable under cost asymmetry; efficient collusion, however, remains more difficult to sustain when costs are asymmetric. Finally, we show that in the presence of side payments cost asymmetry facilitates collusion.     

Average cost pricing versus marginal cost pricing under moral hazard

This paper presents a general framework for analyzing shadow wages in LDCs. We focus on (i) the differences between the domestic and international prices, (ii) the equilibrating mechanisms in the economy, (iii) the endogeneity of earnings in industry and agriculture, (iv) the consequences of industrial employment creation on agriculture, and (v) the nature of migration and unemployment.We identify those reduced form relationships which are central in determining the shadow wage, and use them to obtain general formulae for the shadow wage. These formulae can be specialized to alternative technological, behavioral, and institutional settings. This yields many new results concerning the relationship between the shadow wage and the market wage. Also, earlier results on shadow wages are derived as special cases of our formulae.     

Nonpoint Source Pollution Control under Incomplete and Costly Information

We analyze the efficient management of nonpoint source pollution (NPS) under a limited pollution control budget and incomplete information. We focus on the tradeoff between data collection and pollution abatement efforts by incorporating information acquisition into a NPS pollution control model. Comparative static results show conditions under which (i) a favorable change in the abatement costs at one source may lead to an increase in the treatment level at all sources, and vice versa, (ii) an increase in data collection cost leads to an increase in data collection level, and (iii) an increase in the efficiency of information acquisition leads to a decrease in the level of data collection. More importantly, the model simulations illustrate that acquiring and exploiting information on heterogeneity of sediment loading distributions across polluting sources leads to a more efficient budget allocation and hence a greater reduction in pollution damage than would be the case without such information.     

Market power and exchange rate pass-through

In this paper we provide new empirical evidence on the relationship between market power, as measured by market share, and incomplete exchange rate pass-through. The role of market power is examined in the context of a Cournot model, which is estimated with data relating to Japan's presence in the US market. To test for the existence of possible aggregation biases due to sectoral heterogeneity, estimations are carried out on time series data for the total economy and the manufacturing sector and on panel data for five manufacturing industries at the three-digit level of classification, using the Johansen multivariate cointegration technique and the recently developed by [Larsson, R., Lyhagen, J., & Lothgren, M. (2001). Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels. Econometrics Journal, 4, 109–142] multivariate panel cointegration technique. Hypotheses about the degree of pass-through are tested as restrictions on estimated equilibrium pricing equations and robustness tests are performed. The empirical results indicate that Japanese firms have market power and this validates the use of an imperfect competition model. However, it appears that market power is not the only element on which to base the analysis of the incomplete exchange rate pass-through by Japanese firms.     

State space models for the exchange rate pass-through: determinants and null/full pass-through hypotheses

In this article, we formulate linear Gaussian state space models for the estimation of the exchange rate pass-through of the Brazilian Real against the US Dollar, using monthly data from August 1999 to August 2008. The state space/Kalman filtering framework allows the investigation of some empirical aspects previously suggested in the literature, such as time-varying coefficients and null/full pass-through hypotheses. We also test whether some theoretical ‘determinants’ of the pass-through are statistically significant in the period considered. The principal findings are as follows: (1) the data offer strong support to a time-varying pass-through; and (2) the variance of the exchange rate pass-through, the monetary policy and the trade flow have shown to be relevant determinants of the exchange rate pass-through.     

Exchange-rate pass-through in Japanese export pricing

Two recent aggregative studies claim to demonstrate that Japanese exporters absorb a proportion of exchange-rate changes in their profit margins; but the estimates of this proportion are dramatically different. This study accounts for the discrepancy, and shows that neither estimate is credible. These results identify incomplete pass-through, conditional on costs, as a transitory consequence of export pricing in currencies other than yen. The only long-run effect of the exchange rate on yen-dominated export prices operates through imported materials prices.     

Exchange-rate pass-through at the product level

Abstract.  We use a detailed database to investigate exchange-rate pass-through at the product level for a large number of countries. The empirical analysis suggests that pricing behaviours are dichotomous, with complete pass-through in around 25% of sectors and significant pricing-to-market in the remaining ones. Average long-run pass-through coefficient is close to 80%; this result hides a strong heterogeneity of pass-through behaviours across sectors. Even when composition effects are controlled for, average pass-through varies across importing countries. The econometric analysis shows that pass-through tends to be higher in volatile environments; in less developed countries; in weakly integrated markets.     

Understanding changes in exchange rate pass-through

Recent research suggests that there has been a decline in the extent to which firms “pass-through” changes in exchange rates to prices. This paper provides further evidence in support of this claim. Additionally, it proposes an explanation for this phenomenon. The paper then presents empirical evidence of a structural break during the 1990s in the relationship between the real exchange rate and CPI inflation for a set of fourteen OECD countries. It is suggested that the recent reduction in the real exchange rate pass-through can in part be attributed to the low inflationary environment of the 1990s.     

不完全契约下专利联盟互惠性优化研究

专利联盟是实现专利应用和科技成果转化的重要平台.由于不完全契约的影响,中国专利联盟运营效率较低.不完全契约引发"搭便车""敲竹杠"等机会主义行为,并引发二次"反公地悲剧"效应,抑制了联盟效率.理性经济人下的严格自利偏好无法解决这些机会主义问题,同时,制度经济学理论也未给出可行的方案.在行为经济视角下,互惠性理念与行为是解决专利联盟不完全契约问题的有效手段,值得深入探索和研究.     

Nonlinear exchange rate pass-through in industrial economies

This article presents theoretical arguments for a nonlinear pass-through relationship for import and export prices and investigates the relationship empirically. The theoretical argument is based on the menu-cost approach in which small absolute changes in exchange rates may not prompt price changes because the costs of doing so exceed the extra profits generated for firms involved in international trade. This relationship is investigated empirically using quarterly data for the period 1979q1-2015q1 for a sample of 17 countries. In the case of import prices, evidence is found of nonlinear adjustment consistent with the theoretical model in 4 out of 17 cases. In the case of export prices, such a relationship is only evident for two economies in the sample. However, for both the import and export price cases, a significant positive nonlinear relationship is found for the two largest economies in the sample, i.e. the United States and Japan.