The J-curve effect and the US–Canada forest products trade

This paper examines the dynamic effect of the US–Canada exchange rate on bilateral trade of forest products between the two countries. Special attention is given to investigate the J-curve hypothesis: whether or not the trade balance for US forest products trade with Canada benefits from a decline in the value of the US dollar. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration to estimate quarterly bilateral trade data between the US and Canada from 1989 to 2005. We find little evidence of the J-curve phenomenon for US forest products trade with Canada.     

Forecasting the German forest products trade: A vector error correction model

In the forest sector often very complex models are used that take into account a variety of factors. In addition to variables that describe the natural production of wood, into these models flow among others also such variables that depict nature conservation legislation, market contexts, etc. The limited availability of large amounts of data and more particularly of precise data to all these subject areas considerably weakens the validity of the models. Our study therefore takes up the challenge to develop a model, as simple as possible, that can help to estimate export and import volumes as well as export and import prices of raw timber in Germany. To this end, we apply the technique of time series analysis and develop a simple model that allows for short-term and medium-term forecasting in the German forest sector. We show that using a vector error correction model (VECM) can succeed in a relatively simple modelling of future quantities and prices of raw timber for Germany.     

Regional trade agreements and trade in agri-food products: evidence for the European Union from gravity modeling using disaggregated data

The proliferation of regional trade agreements in recent years has intensified the debate on the desirability of these agreements in themselves and their coexistence with multilateral free trade under the WTO. This study contributes to this debate by analyzing trade creation and trade diversion effects of the European Union on trade flows of six major agri‐food products from 1985 to 2000. An extended gravity model is estimated employing pooled data and generalized least squares methods. The results show that the developments in the EU since the mid‐1980s have served to boost agri‐food trade significantly among the members. Some of the growth in intra‐EU trade in agri‐food products came at the expense of nonmembers as the EU reduced the degree of relative openness to trade with nonmembers during this period and diverted trade from the rest of the world into the intra‐EU channels.     

广东省水产品生产与贸易的现状、问题与对策

广东是我国水产品资源丰富的地区,对虾、罗非鱼和鳗鱼等水产品种的生产和出口具有较强的竞争优势,但水产品的总体比较优势不很明显.目前,渔业资源瓶颈、养殖风险等不利因素是广东水产品竞争力进一步提升的主要制约因素.基于此,可通过加强行业管理、增加政府投入、提高产品质量、突破技术贸易壁垒和出口市场多元化等多项措施,改善广东省水产品生产与贸易状况.     

水产品对外贸易的产品口径问题研究

在水产品对外贸易研究中,不同学者采用不同产品口径的问题普遍存在.本文针对这一问题,通过归纳各种产品国际标准分类目录和常见水产品口径,对比分析了它们的分类方式和产品范围.最后以ISSCFC为基准,对SITC和HS的水产品范围进行了界定,并对水产品对外贸易的产品口径问题提出了相关建议.     

水产品电子商务模式分析

水产品作为日常消费品,在经济生活中占据重要的地位.随着电子商务的快速发展,如何将传统的产品和现代的经营模式结合成为本文的研究目的.本文研究了水产品的销售现状,对水产品电子商务的经营模式进行了可行性分析,深入研究了水产品电子商务模式B2B和B2C,进而提出了水产品电子商务网站的分类模式,并进行了实证研究.希望本文的研究将有利于水产品电子商务的发展.     

中国水产品出口贸易结构性风险分析

本文首先定义出口贸易结构性风险．然后对中国水产品与市场结构集中度进行分析，最后建立出口贸易结构性风险的评价指标。通过分析，发现中国水产品主要集中于4个品种；出13市场集中于日本、韩国、美国、欧盟，并且市场集中度极高的有六种水产品，中等目标市场集中度有五个品种，八个品种为较低市场集中度；高度风险的品种有3个，中高度风险的有3个，中度风险的有8个，低风险的右3个.     

Price elasticities, joint products, and international trade

This paper extends the basic results of Houck's insight for derived demand elasticities for the case of joint products by allowing for the possibility of the joint and raw products being traded. Theoretical relationships between individual demands for a set of jointly–produced commodities that are traded and composite demand for the raw product from which the joint products originate are derived. It is shown that while the derived price elasticity of domestic demand retains the same form as Houck's original formula, the relevant price elasticities of demand to include in the formula are elasticities of total demand instead of domestic demand elasticities. Using the USA soybean industry as an example, this generalised formula that takes into account trade is implemented to calculate the elasticity of total demand for USA soybeans. The usefulness of this formula for policy–makers to trace out the impacts of changes in market conditions and trade policy in the joint–products, and how it will impact the price elasticity of domestic and total demand for the raw product, is demonstrated.     

Geographical indication regulation and intra‐trade in the European Union

Protection of indications of geographical origin (GIs) can reduce information asymmetry between producers and consumers, and potentially enhance trade. However, GIs can also possibly divert trade. We rely on panel data about agri‐food trade among the 27 countries of the European Union to investigate these issues using variations of estimators proposed by Head and Mayer ( 2000 ) and Santos Silva and Tenreyro ( 2006 ). Our findings suggest that the protection of GIs creates trade when the importing and exporting countries have GI‐protected products. There is also empirical evidence regarding a trade‐diverting effect when the importing country does not have GIs and a border enlargement effect arising from European GI‐protection.     

Trends in global virtual land trade in relation to agricultural products

Trade volume of agricultural products can be used to quantify the virtual land transfers between countries. This study assessed the virtual land trade (VLT) associated with the global trade of agricultural products using specific crop yield of exporting countries and gave insights in characteristics of different products and different countries. In addition, the features of trade connections were also displayed by network analysis. The results showed that the total virtual land within global agricultural trade increased from 128 million hectare (ha) in 1986 to 350 million ha in 2016, the average annual growth rate was 5.73 %. Increases in trade of oil crops contributed the largest share to this. The proportion of exported land area in total harvested land area increased for almost all categories of agricultural products. Countries engaged in global agricultural trade could be divided into three groups, net exporters, net importers and countries with balanced VLT. The net importers could be further divided into the countries with absolutely scarce land resources and the countries with relative scarce resources. All net virtual land exporters are the countries with more land resources per capita, such as the United States, Brazil and Argentina. Income growth and changes in diet structure are main factors driving increases in VLT. The VLT network became more complex over the study period, with the number of import and export nodes increasing continuously, and the cumulative distributions of export and import node strength following power law distributions. The major links and players within national, geographic, and economic groups also changed significantly over the study period. VLT has a deep impact on society, economy and environment, appropriate policies should be taken to make these interlinkages more sustainable for both importers and exporters.     

中国水产品出口贸易结构比较分析

水产品出口贸易为中国出口刨汇、增加国民收入做出了重要贡献.但是,随着出口贸易额的扩大,各种贸易摩擦制约了水产品的正常出口.针对该问题,很多学者从技术贸易壁垒角度进行了分析,给出相关理论政策和建议,但缺乏从出口贸易结构角度的分析.基于此,通过收集1997-2006年的水产品贸易数据,运用贸易竞争指数、市场占有率、市场集中度和显示性比较优势指数,文章从水产品与出口市场相对应的角度,定量比较分析了中国水产品出口贸易的产品结构、规模结构和市场结构.最后,从产品和市场角度提出了优化建议.     

水产品贸易自由化对中国渔业的影响

１水产品贸易自由化的进程研究（１）贸易自由化在本文中的定义范围。“贸易自由化”这一术语主要有两种含义。第一,亚太经济合作论坛提出的最终取消ＡＰＥＣ成员国之间的商品和服务的关税障碍这一贸易自由化计划。逐步实现ＡＰＥＣ各成员之间的贸易自由化,是多届ＡＰＥＣ论坛首脑会议的一个主题。ＡＰＥＣ成员约占世界ＧＤＰ总值的５５%,全球贸易总额的４０%。中国与ＡＰＥＣ其他成员的贸易占中国总出口、总进口的比重都超过２／３。第二,中国１９９６、１９９７年自主进行的关税削减。本文所指的贸易自由化主要指消除可贸易品的关税障碍,…     

基于比较优势的中欧贸易产品结构实证分析

中国和欧盟是世界两大主要的经济体.目前,欧盟已经成为我国的第一大贸易伙伴,2006年中国与欧盟双边贸易额已经达到2540亿欧元,比1978增长了近60倍.按照比较优势理论,我国应向欧盟大量出口劳动密集型产品,进口资本和技术密集型产品.我们在比较优势理论的基础上,通过RCA指数对中欧近年来的贸易产品结构进行了实证分析.结果表明,我国与欧盟贸易结构正从劳动密集型产品为主逐步向资本密集型产品为主转变,贸易结构不断优化和改善,这主要得益于我国产业结构的优化升级和国家"走出去"战略的实施.     

Impacts of Australia’s free trade agreements on trade in agricultural products: an aggregative and disaggregative analysis

The importance of free trade agreements (FTAs) has been increasing as such agreements help reduce barriers to trade. This paper estimates the agricultural trade creation and export diversion effects of Australia’s free trade agreements (FTAs) at the aggregate and disaggregate levels, using the Poisson pseudo‐maximum‐likelihood (PPML) estimator. It includes 24 of Australia’s major trading partner countries comprising FTA and non‐FTA members and covers 22 years from 1996 to 2017. The heteroscedasticity robust regression error specification test (RESET) confirms the relevance of PPML over the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator. Results showed that China–Australia, Korea–Australia, Australia–USA and Japan–Australia have larger trade creation effects in the agricultural sector. At the commodity level, variation in trade creation effects is estimated from the different trade agreements. Among the selected commodities, the larger effects were generated in trade in sugar and wine by the implementation of the majority of the trade agreements. Overall, the trade creation was greater than the export diversion of the FTAs. The findings of the study have implications for Australia’s future trade agreements.     

辽宁水产品出口贸易发展态势及倍增路径选择

辽宁是中国水产品贸易体系的重要一员,2002年以来其水产品出口额位居全国前4位,出口品种达150种,出口贸易涉足6大洲99个国家;出口贸易的重心依然在亚洲,69％的水产品销往高收入国家或地区;加工贸易方式依然是出口的主要模式,成为辽宁渔业融入全球水产品生产网络并参与水产业分工的重要途径;出口贸易运行渠道可分解为原料水产品供应管理、水产品加工管理、水产品贸易管理、水产品物流管理等环节及流转途径.然而,水产品出口金额倍增目标的实现非常艰巨.对于此,可选择力推水产品优势养殖产业带建设、挖掘潜力发挥渔业产业链条作用、提高对渔业公共物品的投资强度、改进水产品国际竞争力影响因素、面向全球的水产品目标营销战略等路径.     

以养殖为主的水产品贸易环境成本及对策探析

在政府的支持与引导之下,我国水产品贸易发展迅速,在农产品贸易中已占有举足轻重的地位,同时水产品构成也基本完成从捕捞到养殖的转变。然而由于规划欠科学、养殖模式落后、资源开发过度等原因,水产养殖也同样对环境资源造成消极影响并日益显著。本文在实证分析以养殖为主的水产品贸易的发展及其对环境的不利影响后继而提出解决措施,以引导我国以养殖为主的水产品贸易走可持续发展之路。