On the investment sensitivity of debt under uncertainty

We investigate the impact of debt on a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms' capital investment behavior as the underlying firm-specific and market-level uncertainty changes. Our estimates show that the influence of leverage on capital investment may be stimulating or mitigating depending on the effects of uncertainty.     

Competition schemes and investment in network infrastructure under uncertainty

This paper compares two specific types of competition schemes—service-based and facility-based competition—by focusing on a firm’s incentive to invest in network infrastructure. We show that when monopoly rent is large, facility-based competition means that the initial introduction of infrastructure is made earlier than under service-based competition. However, when monopoly rent and the degree of uncertainty are both small, service-based competition brings about the earlier initial introduction of infrastructure than facility-based competition. The paper includes discussion of the policy implications of these findings.      

Tax competition for foreign direct investment under information uncertainty

The relation between taxation states and foreign direct investment (FDI) has been studied from several perspectives and with states at different levels of development. Most previous studies, however, have only considered the impact of tax level on FDI volume. This paper enhances this view by assuming that multinational enterprises (MNEs) can use transfer prices systems and have investment timing flexibility. Thus, it evaluates the impact of the use of international transfer pricing systems on state policy and on the investment timings of MNEs. In uncertain business environments (with the periodic releases of news), investment can increase if MNEs delay investment decisions. This paper shows how tax differentials can attract FDI and can influence MNE behavior. The equilibrium is set in a global environment where MNEs can shift their profits between states depending on local corporate tax rates. Assuming the use of transfer pricing schemes, this paper confirms the relationship between MNE behavior and the release of business news.     

Sustained output growth under uncertainty: A simple model with human capital

In a model where agents use their labour/education choice to adjust their consumption profile over time, I show that the impact of uncertainty on growth depends, critically, on agents’ attitudes towards risk, reflected by the coefficient of relative risk aversion. In this respect, the well known result from the literature on ‘saving under uncertainty’ can be extended into a broader context, whereby the intertemporal profile of consumption is determined via human capital accumulation rather than saving and physical capital investment.     

The choice and timing of foreign direct investment under uncertainty

This paper sheds new light on why timing and entry mode should be considered simultaneously in the international investment literature. We derive the profit levels at which it is optimal to switch from exporting to setting up a wholly owned subsidiary, creating a joint venture, or licensing production to a local firm. The preferred entry mode depends on uncertainty about future profits, tax differentials between the home and the foreign country, the cost advantages of local firms, institutional requirements, and the degree of cooperation between partners in a joint venture.     

Endogenous timing in a mixed oligopoly under demand uncertainty

This paper analyzes a Hotelling-type game in a mixed oligopoly, where firms can either enter the market in period 1, facing demand uncertainty, or postpone their entry, in order to acquire complete information. It is shown that, for a high (low) level of uncertainty, there is a pure (mixed)-strategy equilibrium. Moreover, the standard result in the literature—that uncertainty is a differentiation force, is only possible when the degree of uncertainty is small. An increase in the degree of uncertainty could force firms to delay their entry and lead to a socially optimal outcome.     

Location decisions under uncertainty and the urban model

This letter uses a simple urban model to analyze the impact of random transportation costs on residential location decisions of households. It is shown that such uncertainty steepens the fall of land prices with distance from the CBD and can, in a specific example, cause an increase in optimal city size.     

Fiber investment and access under uncertainty: long-term contracts,risk premia,and access options

Journal of Regulatory Economics - Regulated access schemes shape incentives for both investment and entry in next-generation networks. We study in a general duopoly setting whether and how risk...     

Modelling investment and disinvestment decisions under competition,uncertainty and different market interventions

A real options market model is developed, which derives the firms' optimal investment and disinvestment thresholds simultaneously in a competitive environment. It combines genetic algorithms and stochastic simulation, whereby vast modelling flexibility is gained. For example, different market interventions can be integrated and their effects on the firms' investment behaviour and the sectoral welfare can be assessed. The model is validated for its application to competitive markets by numerically replicating the optimality property of myopic planning. According to the results, production ceilings and investment subsidies are preferable to price floors because the welfare is less reduced for a given stimulation of the willingness to invest. Moreover, it is shown that not considering disinvestment options, which in reality often exist, can lead to incorrect valuations of investment strategies at firm level and incorrect policy impact analyses at macroeconomic level.     

A managerial model of investment: overlooked alternatives

The long-run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is tested for nine bilateral sterling exchange rates, using recently developed techniques on cointegration and seasonal integration. The empirical findings show that none of the exchange rates and relative prices contain seasonal unit roots, but all have an autoregressive unit root. The cointegration tests overwhelmingly reject the PPP hypothesis as a long-run equilibrium condition for all countries concerned.     

A Q-theory model with lumpy investment

We present an analytically tractable dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that incorporates micro-level fixed and convex adjustment costs. We provide an explicit characterization of equilibrium dynamics by a system of nonlinear stochastic difference equations. We provide general conditions under which our model features investment lumpiness at the microeconomic level, but aggregate dynamics are isomorphic to those in a Q-theory model without fixed costs. This theoretical result is independent of the specification of the fixed cost distribution and also holds true when firms face persistent idiosyncratic productivity shocks.     

Resource allocation in a general equilibrium model of production under uncertainty

The purpose of this paper is to examine the implications of uncertainty for resource allocation, real income, and income distribution in terms of a simple two-sector general equilibrium model of a small country where uncertainty is introduced by assuming that production in one sector occurs in a stochastic environment. Assuming decreasing risk aversion, we show that an increase in uncertainty causes the movement of the resources away from the uncertain sector, a decline in expected real income, and a shift in the distribution of income against the factor employed intensively by the uncertain sector.     

Asymmetry and uncertainty in capital formation: an application to oil investment

Theories of irreversible investment suggest a negative relation between investment and uncertainty, and nonlinear adjustment costs open for asymmetries in the adjustment of fixed capital. We propose an econometric modelling approach to estimate and test the key predictions of modern investment theory, including asymmetric dynamics and various uncertainty indicators. Our application on a data set from the oil industry offers empirical support for both asymmetric dynamics and uncertainty in oil and gas investment.     

A model of working time under utility competition in the labor market

The text develops a model of wage and working-time setting by profit-maximizing firms in a competitive labor market with homogeneous workers. Emphasis is placed on the role played by fixed costs of labor and of workers' varying effectiveness in time. Competition among firms implies a constraint on the utility level associated to the labor contract. The model contributes to explain insiders' rationing and other contemporary stylized facts, and lends itself to a particular approach to the problem of evaluating the consequences of mandatory working-time reductions.     

A new approach to modeling decision-making under uncertainty

This paper presents two axiomatic models of decision making under uncertainty that avoid the use of a state space. The first is a subjective expected utility model with action-dependent subjective probabilities and effect-dependent preferences (the case of effect-independent preferences is obtained as a special instance). The second is a nonexpected utility model involving well-defined families of action-dependent subjective probabilities on effects and a utility representation that is not necessarily linear in these probabilities (a probabilistic sophistication version of this model, with action-dependent subjective probabilities is obtained as a special case). The hospitality of EUREQua, University of Paris 1, and financial support by the National Science Foundation grant SES-0314249 are gratefully acknowledged.     

Managerial flexibility, uncertainty, and corporate investment: The real options effect

This paper examines how changes in uncertainty affect corporate investment and how managerial flexibility influences this effect. Consistent with existing evidence, this study shows that increased uncertainty reduces a firm's capital expenditures even after controlling for investment opportunities and fund availability. It further shows that the negative effect of increased uncertainty on corporate investment is more pronounced for firms with fewer financial constraints and larger size. Overall, the results suggest that managerial flexibility proxied by certain firm characteristics affects the negative relation between uncertainty and investment.     

A revealed-preference implication of weighted utility decisions under uncertainty

Summary. In a novel formulation of revealed preference analysis, Green and Osband [8] show that for expected-utility maximizers, acts partition the state-simplex into linear polyhedral blocks. The question naturally arises whether this characterization distinguishes expected utility theory from non-expected utility theories. This paper investigates the weighted utility theory of Chew [2] and shows that the corresponding partition is systematically different from the expected utility theory: the boundaries of the partition blocks are quadratic rather than linear. This result contains useful empirical contents. Received: May 15, 1995; revised version: November 22, 1996