It is Time for National Action to Reach the Lisbon Goals

Summary During the second half of 2004, the Netherlands held the Presidency of the European Union. One of the conferences during the Presidency was titled ‘More people at work: Policies to activate Europe’s labour potential’. It was organised on October 25 and 26, 2004 at the Beurs van Berlage in Amsterdam. The conference focused on four particular areas: the reconciliation of work and family life, activating social security systems, mobility and training. As a starting point for the discussions during the conference, academics who are experts in the specific policy areas were asked to write a paper. In this special edition of ‘De economist’ you will find a presentation of three of their papers. In my contribution I will explain why I have put the focus of this conference on increasing labour supply and more in particular why these four themes have been chosen as relevant for Member States and the Union. As time has not stopped after the Netherlands’ Presidency I will also take this opportunity to show that the conclusions of the conference have become an integrated part of the revitalised Lisbon strategy.     

Social Returns to Education: Macro-Evidence

Summary This paper presents new evidence on the social returns to education within a macroeconomic growth regression framework. I use improved schooling data and a macro version of the Mincer relationship between education and wages for individual workers. The results suggest that an increase by one year of the average education level of the labor force would increase labor productivity by 7–10% in the short run and by 11–15% in the long run. Some evidence is found for the presence of dynamic human capital spillovers: the human capital stock increases prospective economic growth. The empirical results are used to quantify the macroeconomic impact of skill upgrading as agreed upon in the European Union’s Lisbon strategy for growth and jobs. Finally, the paper discusses discrepancies between private and social returns to education. I would like to thank two referees, Dinand Webbink, Peter Wobst, and participants of the brown bag lunch seminar series at the Enterprise and Industry Directorate-General of the European Commission for helpful comments. Views expressed are my own, and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the European Commission or the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.     

The ERM II issues: An interpretation of the Slovenian approach

This paper overviews the joint strategy of the Bank of Slovenia and of the Government of Slovenian for the policy management in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II (ERM II) and the eventual adoption of the euro. The current prospects of the Slovenian economy are favorable for early entry into ERM II so that the currency union can be acceded as soon as possible. The ERM II-connected risks, in particular an asymmetric credit financed demand boom, require a new policy mix to be set in place. While the monetary policy will focus on the tight management of the nominal exchange rate, the role of inflation restraint and shock absorption will rely on fiscal and income policies. The views expressed by the author do not necessarily correspond to those of the Board of the Bank of Slovenia. This paper was prepared for the panel “Monetary Policy and EMU Enlargement: The Adoption of the Euro” at the International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Lisbon in March 2004.     

Enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and the Economic Development of Member States

The issues of enlargement, the Lisbon Agenda, and economic development are important not only to new European Union (EU) member states but impact all 25 countries. EU membership may help the new members to foster long-term economic growth through increased credibility, effective use of structural funds, a better framework for economic growth, and entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). The economic growth of all member states can be strengthened if the reforms related to the main goals of the Lisbon Agenda are completed. Action must be taken both at the member-state level and at the Community level. At the member-state level it is necessary to assure fiscal consolidation and deregulation. At the Community level the preservation of the Stability and Growth Pact, completion of the single market, especially in the service sector, and enforcement of limits on public aid are of the greatest importance.The 2006 Robert A. Mundell Distinguished Address presented at the Sixty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference. Berlin, Germany, 15–19 March 2006. In preparing this paper, I was assisted by Pawel Opala and Andrzej Rzońca. The usual caveats apply.     

Nea presidential address, 1985: Managing African American development

This article outlines a development strategy for the next 30 years, with income targets. It calls for a new type of “civil rights” leadership that has a managerial, problem solving attitude. It offers a set of objectives that emphasize internal discipline.     

Liberalization of EU telecommunications and trade: theory, gravity equation analysis and policy implications

The liberalization of telecommunications has contributed to considerable price reductions in international telephony and to rising volumes of telecommunications. This raises the issue of the economic impact of international telephony. Falling international information and transaction costs should stimulate competition and enlarge the market radius for producers in the tradables sector—this lets us to expect trade creation effects of international telecommunications; this in turn should raise output provided that more intensive international telecommunications stimulates international diffusion of knowledge or brings about trade-related specialization gains. Based on a modified gravity equation which is taking into account the role of international telecommunication volumes—based on new ITU data—we show that international telephony has a significant positive impact on trade volume: A rise of the international telecommunications volume by 10% raises trade by 2% in Europe. At the same time the coefficients of the traditional variables, GDP in the exporting and the importing country, are smaller than in traditional approaches. Thus from a policy perspective the modernization and growth of the international telecommunications network—within a system of enhanced competition—is crucial for Europe: economic integration will be reinforced. From this perspective the Lisbon Agenda is right to emphasize the importance of creating a digitally networked knowledge society.

Comparable worth and its impact on black women

Comparable worth is a subset of affirmative action strategies that deal with all of the terms and conditions of employment including hiring, recruitment, promotion, transfer, and wages. This article describes the comparable worth strategy and its potential impact on black women, black men, and the black community. By viewing the representation of black women in municipal clerical jobs, the author concludes that black women will gain from comparable worth. Because black men are overrepresented in ℝdtypically female” jobs, it is further concluded that black males will gain from implementation of comparable worth. Finally, because comparable worth will examine the basis for pay scales, the author concludes that both gender and racial bias may be revealed when job evaluations are examined. This article also views limitations to the comparable worth strategy and distributional concerns of comparable worth.     

The demand for M3 and inflation forecasts: An empirical analysis for Switzerland

The Demand for M3 and Inflation Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis for Switzerland. — This paper argues that money should continue to play an important role in monetary policy even if a central bank pursues a strategy based on inflation forecasts. Within the context of an error correction model, the paper delivers empirical evidence that both the growth rate of the monetary aggregate M3 and the size of excess M3 incorporate useful information with regard to future inflation in Switzerland. This evidence strongly suggests that money should remain an important indicator for monetary policy.     

Assessing inflation targeting through intervention analysis

The aim of this paper is to deal with the empirical aspectsof the ‘new’ monetary policy framework, known asInflation Targeting. Applying Intervention Analysis to multivariateStructural Time Series models, which avoids certain biases encounteredin the use of conventional regression estimators, new empiricalevidence is produced in the case of a number of OECD countries.These results demonstrate that although Inflation Targetinghas gone hand-in-hand with low inflation, the strategy was introducedwell after inflation had begun its downward trend. But, then,Inflation Targeting ‘locks in’ low inflation rates.The evidence produced in this paper suggests that non-InflationTargeting central banks have also been successful on this score.     

The Ex-Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: The Case of Portugal

This paper examines the ex-dividend day behavior of stock prices in the Lisbon Stock Market over the period 1990–1998, extending on international evidence and discussing the adequacy of competing theories, considering the Portuguese institutional environment. We find that on the ex-day stock prices fall by less than the dividend, which is in line with the findings of several studies based on US and non-US data. The main contributions of this paper are: (1) the rejection of a tax explanation for the stock price drop, because it is inconsistent with the Portuguese tax regime; (2) considering the very small stock price tick and the fact that dividends are always integer multiples of tick size, the discreteness hypothesis of Bali and Hite (Journal of Financial Economics 47(2):127–159, 1998) is also ruled out as a possible explanation for ex-day price movements. We find no evidence of tax related clientele effects. We propose that ex-day price behavior may be an anomaly, reflecting a less than efficient market with low liquidity levels, price stickiness, and insipid arbitrage trading.

Stable and enforceable: a new fiscal framework for the Euro area

Since the great financial crash, the need for new fiscal rules to prevent unsustainable fiscal policies is universally recognised. In practice such rules, including those in the Stability and Growth Pact, have proved to be impossible to enforce. Thus, to avoid unsustainable fiscal policies reappearing, and to prevent monetary policy from being undermined by undisciplined governments, there is a need for a framework capable of imposing fiscal discipline. This paper considers an intertemporal assignment, where fiscal policy focuses on long-term objectives and monetary policy on short-term stabilisation. We argue for public sector debt targets as a practical way to achieve such a set up, and an excess debt protocol is constructed to give enforceable form to those targets. The ideas of “fiscal space” and optimal debt levels are used to provide a mechanism for identifying a stable region within which the debt targeting regime should operate. Making these factors explicit would both improve the credibility of planned fiscal policies and reduce risk premia on borrowing costs. We finally show how Europe’s competitiveness pact, and debt restructuring operations, can be used to maximise the available fiscal space.     

On technology policy and its institutional frame

The purpose of this paper is limited to a discussion of only some of the institutional aspects of technology policy. The ways in which the technology problem currently differs from that faced by the nineteenth-century developing countries and the implications of these differences for development strategy are discussed in section I. The nature of the technology problem in the context of a development strategy is indicated in section II. It is argued in section III that it is not possible to identify the specific technology gaps and devise a suitable technology policy without first initiating the development of Technical Consultancy Service Centres (TCSCs) in relevant fields. The TCSCs can be made effective in their tasks only if their work is directly and vitally related to the development strategy and specific project ideas and specific projects that are consistent with such strategy and are seriously considered for implementation. Hence the TCSCs' functioning should be organically related with the tasks of the development banks. For the international diffusion of appropriate technology, and for solving certain difficult core technology problems, it is essential to supplement and reinforce the tasks of national centres by the development of international centres—in the fields of both consultancy and specific technological research—and these international centres should have an organic relationship with the corresponding national centres as well as with international development banks, which should in fact initiate action in these fields (section IV).     

Equitable,productive employment targets for the international development strategy

Although economic growth in many developing countries has matched and even surpassed the growth targets of the UN's International Development Strategy (IDS), it often has failed to alleviate the problems of employment and income distribution. Nonetheless, preparations for an IDS for the Third Development Decade continue to focus on aggregate and sectoral growth targets.Recognizing the essential linkage between growth, employment and poverty, this paper formulates targets for employment and growth with equity and integrates them with the proposed overall IDS growth objective using a consistent macro framework. This paper examines the dynamic implications of this equitable, productive employment strategy for the sectoral distribution of labour and capital and for the income distribution and compares it with alternative scenarios.The basic results show that an equitable productive employment strategy will not only raise absolute incomes of the poor but improve the income distribution, whether measured by the relative income of the poorest 40% or, perhaps more important, of those who continue to obtain only low-productivity employment. Evidence from some countries in the 1970s indicates that the strategy is feasible, provided appropriate policies are pursued. An important element in the strategy appears to be the maintenance of a demand for goods produced by the poor; in this context the high growth of industry recommended in the IDS for low-income countries is likely to lead to increasing inequality. This paper concludes with some broad policy recommendations for achieving the equitable productive employment target.     

Adjustment with a human face: Still relevant or overtaken by events?

This paper describes the extent to which the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” have been accepted. The concept has been accepted in principle, but large gaps remain in actual implementation. Some policy recommendations, such as the need for compensatory programs, have been more fully accepted and implemented than others, such as the need to stimulate productivity by poor households and to involve different social groups in policy making. The paper concludes that adjustment policies should be part of a long-term development strategy which emphasizes structural changes for countries to grow out of structural poverty. As such, the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” still remain valid, albeit with changes in emphasis on their various components.     

Review of the South African Agricultural Legislative Framework: Food security implications

Although South Africa has reported national food security for decades, current production patterns, land uncertainty and consumer preferences put future national household food insecurity in question. Household food insecurity in South Africa is at unacceptable levels. This paper reviews the country's agricultural legislative framework in terms of food security and the right to food. The review found that South African agricultural policies do not actively promote food security and the lack of enforceable food security policy makes it difficult to coordinate existing policies. The lack of food security legislation means that the right to food has no enforceable framework. A comprehensive food security policy, legislative framework and implementation strategy are urgently needed to address hunger poverty to progressively achieve the targets set out for national growth and development and realise the right to food enshrined in the Constitution.     

Reforming the Corporate Income Tax: The Case for a Hybrid Cash-flow Tax

Summary This paper argues for the adoption of a hybrid cash-flow tax on corporations that, on the one hand, taxes only corporate rents as they accrue, and, on the other hand, treats real and financial transactions neutrally. It is, therefore, a superior tax compared to the conventional corporate income tax – on both economic and administrative grounds. Its design also addresses the usual concerns associated with cash-flow taxation. The base of this hybrid cash-flow tax is the aggregate net cash inflow of combined real and financial transactions excluding capital expenditures, for which conventional depreciation allowances are retained with interest as compensation for the opportunity cost of equity capital. Furthermore, it is argued that it should be implemented on a destination basis that would render transfer pricing and thin capitalization moot. This paper is a revised version of an IMF working paper (WP/06/117) previously circulated under the title “A Superior Hybrid Cash-Flow Tax on Corporations.” The views expressed herein are those of the author; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy and should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. Helpful comments from Richard Bird, Isaias Coelho, John Isaac, Michael Keen, Russell Krelove, Alan Macnaughton, Peter Mullins, and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Discussions with John Isaac have been particularly valuable. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Electricity transmission pricing: The German case

This paper elucidates the German electric power market, especially the electricity transmission pricing system that has been in force since January 2000. This paper points to several distorting pricing features, as well as to grid access problems, and suggests that a regulation office should be established. Moreover, it is argued that an independent grid operator for the entire German grid would enhance its efficient operation, and thereby increase the overall efficiency of the German electric power market. In addition, the actual cost structure and calculation procedure of a German grid operator is described in some detail. Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the Forty-Ninth International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 14–21, 2000, Munich, Germany and the Fifty-First International Atlantic Economic Conference, March 13–20, 2001, Athens, Greece.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy: The Italian Lira, 1883–1911

The three exchange rate regimes adopted by Italy from 1883 up to the eve of World War I — the gold standard (1883–1893), floating rates (1894–1902), and “gold shadowing” (1903–1911)—produced a puzzling result: formal adherence to the gold standard ended in failure while shadowing the gold standard proved very successful. This paper discusses the main policies underlying Italy’s performance particularly focusing on the strategy of reserve accumulation. It presents a cointegration analysis identifying a distinct co-movement between exchange rate, reserves, and banknotes that holds over the three sub-periods of the sample. Given this long-run relationship, the different performance in each regime is explained by the diversity of policy measures, reflected in the different variables adjusting the system in the various regimes. Italy’s variegated experience during the gold standard provides a valuable lesson about current developments in the international scenario, showing the central role of fundamentals and consistent policies.     

Price-cost margins in Dutch manufacturing

Summary The relation between price-cost margins and seller concentration and its development over the business cycle is investigated for Dutch manufacturing (1974–1986). We test the finding of Domowitz, Hubbard and Petersen (1986a and 1986b), that U.S. manufacturing (1958–1981) price-cost margins are more procyclical in more concentrated industries using a new data set. Considering business cycle measures at both industry and aggregated level, export share, level of competing imports and buyer concentration we find that (1) a business cycle upswing (downturn) leads to high (low) price-cost margins and (2) the test of more procyclical price-cost margins in more concentrated industries is inconclusive. Whether the finding of Domowitz, Hubbard and Petersen is supported depends on the business cycle measure used. Separate intertemporal and inter-industry estimates for most influences on price-cost margins are provided.Financial support from The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) is acknowledged. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the XVII-th Annual Conference of the European Association for Research in Industrial Economics (EARIE), Lisbon, 2–4 September 1990. We like to thank Rene den Hertog for computational assistance and Aad Kleijweg, Dan Kovenock, Keith Cowling, Kees Zeelenberg, David Audretsch, Sjaak Vollebregt, Jan van Dalen, Jeroen Potjes and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

Console Price and Software Availability in the Home Video Game Industry

Using hedonic results from a unique data set covering the U.S. home video game industry (1976–2003) the interaction between software provision and console price is analyzed. Increased software provision negatively effects console price. This is contrary to many empirical pricing studies in the network effects literature greater software provision makes hardware more valuable and this should be reflected by increased hardware price. However, the main result from the paper is consistent with the recent theoretical literature on two-sided markets. Also, findings suggest the two-sided pricing strategy employed by hardware firms is dynamic. The percent of price decrease accredited to game provision decreases over time.