美国双缺口、对外债务与经济增长

对外债务显著扩张是当代美国经济外部失衡加剧的主要表现形式,但对外债务扩张的根本原因在于美国经济的内部失衡。对外债务的根本作用在于弥补美国政府部门财政缺口与私人部门储蓄-投资缺口。研究显示,在经济景气阶段,美国私人部门储蓄-投资缺口会扩大,工商企业会增加对外负债弥补储蓄-投资缺口;在经济衰退阶段,美国政府部门财政缺口会扩大,政府部门会增加对外负债弥补财政缺口。因此,无论美国经济景气还是衰退,其对外债务规模都在增加。考虑到美国经济对对外债务的强烈依赖性,我们有理由认为,未来美国的对外债务仍然会持续扩张。     

The External Debt Problem in Africa: A Comparative Study of Nigeria and Morocco

In this paper, the African external debt problem with particular reference to Nigeria and Morocco is extensively analysed, and statistical indicators show that it is severe and has adverse effects on investment. The analysis also finds that fiscal expenditure, balance of payments and global interest rate are the crucial factors in explaining the accumulation of external debt in the two countries. Although the problem tends to exhibit some differences in characteristics between the two countries, the fact remains that they both belong to the same category of highly indebted countries. It is therefore necessary they embark on a rapid programme of privatization aimed at reducing fiscal expenditure, and a sustained export promotion programme to improve balance of payments. At the same time, both countries should restructure and develop their capital markets to reduce exposure to the vagaries of global interest rate. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank could also assist by modifying the International debt relief programme (HIPC Initiative) to accommodate both countries. Cet article étudie en détail le problème de la dette extérieure de l’Afrique, en se centrant en particulier sur les exemples du Nigeria et du Maroc. Les indicateurs statistiques montrent que le problème est grave et a des effets négatifs sur l’investissement. L’analyse a également mis à jour le fait que les dépenses fiscales, la balance des paiements et le taux d’intérÁt global sont des facteurs essentiels dans l’accumulation de la dette extérieure dans ces deux pays. Si le problème présente des caractéristiques différentes dans les deux pays, le fait n’en demeure pas moins qu’ils appartiennent tous deux à la mÁme catégorie des pays très endettés. Il leur est donc nécessaire d’engager rapidement un programme de privatisation visant à réduire les dépenses fiscales, et un programme intensif de promotion des exportations pour améliorer la balance des paiements. Dans le mÁme temps, les deux pays doivent restructurer et développer leurs marchés financiers pour réduire leur exposition aux caprices des taux d’intérÁt mondiaux. Le Fonds monétaire international (FMI) et la Banque mondiale pourraient également les aider en modifiant le programme international d’allégement de dette (Initiative PPTE) de manière à ce qu’ils puissent en profiter.     

对外负债结构与国内制度:中国引进外资为何以FDI为主

股本、债务类资金在一国吸收外资中的占比与该国法治、产权保护等社会公共制度和金融制度密切相关。当两种制度都较落后时,外资流入以债务资金特别是官方借贷为主。社会公共制度的不断完善,将促进FDI的增长,但FDI在对外负债中占比较高,可能反映一国金融体系还不是很发达。当社会公共制度和金融制度都较完善时,国外证券融资尤其是债券融资将占主导,FDI和银行信贷处于次要地位。当前中国FDI在对外负债中占比过高,很大程度上是金融发展滞后的结果,如民营企业融资受到歧视,金融市场不发达、分散风险的能力弱等。     

China's Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Dynamics

Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China's financial stability. China's rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors: worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China's corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China's nonfinancial corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists' intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China's corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms' profitability, while reducing firms' financing costs.     

External Debt,Fiscal Policy and Terms-of-Trade Disturbances in the Dynamics of an Open Economy: A Case of Cameroon

Abstract: This paper examines the long-run and dynamic effects of changes in terms-of-trade and government debt and deficit using a dynamic and stochastic equilibrium model of a small open economy. The model is calibrated and simulated to evaluate its ability to rationalize the observed pattern of Cameroon economic fluctuations. The results show that the model reproduces remarkably well business fluctuations of this country for the period 1967–1992 using moderate adjustment costs of labor and capital. Particularly, the decline in economic activities, observed in the last decade in Cameroon, can mainly be explained by the terms-of-trade deteriorations and the fiscal policy misleading. These two shocks were shown to be the most important sources of business fluctuations in this country. Both permanent and temporary terms-of-trade deteriorations have a more negative impact in the economy. It results in a reduction of national wealth and a more persistent recession, and induces a large increase in the country level of external indebtedness. Results of dynamic simulation also indicate that fiscal policy aimed at reducing government debt and budget deficits can dampen the negative effects of terms-of-trade deterioration, but the country will experience a recession in short-run. The model forecasts a recovery of economic activities eight periods after adopting such a macroeconomic adjustment policy. The forecast of the model minimics the recent economic experience of Cameroon for the period 1985–1995. Réesumée: Cet article analyse, àa partir d'un modéele d'éequilibre dynamique et stochastique, l'impact intertemporel des variations des termes de l'éechange extéerieur, de la dette et du déeficit publics, sur les fluctuations d'une petite éeconomie ouverte. Le modéele est calibre sur l'economie Camerounaise. Les réesultats montrent que le modéele reproduit fidéelement la conjoncture économique camerounaise pour la période de l'étude, soit de 1967 a 1992. En particulier, la récession enregistree au Cameroun au cours de la derniére décennie peut être essentiellement expliquée par la détérioration des termes de l'échange et le mésalignement de la politique fiscale. Ces deux chocs se sont avérés comme étant les plus importantes sources de fluctuations économiques dans ce pays. Une détérioration permanente ou temporaire des termes de l'échange peut être néfaste pour l'économie camerounaise. Elle entraîne une réduction de la richesse nationale, une récession persistante et une grande augmentation du niveau d'endettement extérieur du pays. Les résultats des simulations dynamiques montrent que ces effets négatifs peuvent être atténués, si le pays adopte une politique de contrainte budgétaire visant à réduire à la fois le déficit et la dette publics. Le modéle prévoit le renversement de la récession ou le regain de la croissance économique aprés environ huit périodes. Cette prévision cadre bien avec la conjoncture economique du Cameroun pour la péiode 1985–1995.     

The External Debt Situation in Indonesia: Performance and Prospects

In interviews with bankers, government economists and academic observers, most of them attributed the absence of an Indonesian debt crisis during 1982–84 to the fact that a significant portion of external public debt, an average of 37 percent, was long-term concessionary loans from foreign governments and international agencies. Our analysis challenges this conventional explanation. We show that if Indonesia (1) had paid the same effective interest rate as Mexico, (2) had the same maturity structure as Mexican debt, and (3) had the same export-GNP ratio as Mexico, then its average 1980–82 total debt service-export ratio would have been 84.4% instead of the actual 30.1%. Our decomposition shows that concessional interest rates account for 5.8 percentage points of the gap, maturity structure for 17.7 percentage points and export orientation for 30.8 percentage points.
We have concluded that the major cause for the favorable 1982–84 outcome is competent management of the exchange rate. The absence of protracted exchange rate overvaluation from 1979 onward was fundamental in maintaining a strong nonoil tradeable sector. The nonoil tradeable sector was able to earn enough foreign exchange to service Indonesian debts when the external shock of high interest rates increased debt service payments and the recession in industrialized countries lowered the price of oil. The absence of extended exchange rate overvaluation also kept the external debt down and the maturity structure on the long side by not encouraging capital flight. We ascribe this use of the exchange rate to protect the tradeable sector as much to the existence of an influential political constituency consisting of neoclassical economists, Javanese peasants and Outer Island residents as to balance-of-payments considerations.
We recommend an aggressive exchange rate policy and two sets of supplementary measures to reduce the probability of a debt crisis in the medium run.     

An Ecological Footprint Approach to External Debt Relief

This paper applies Martinez-Alier’s [Environ. Values 2 (1993) 97] “ecological debt” concept to the problem of debt relief, exploring the possibility of compensatory transfers from rich to poor countries based on existing ecological balances. I employ recent estimates on ecological footprints and ecosystem values to estimate the ecological debt to be distributed among eligible transfer recipients––all less-developed countries (LDCs). The results provide a policy criterion for transfers in the event that future circumstances make large-scale international debt relief compulsory. The study probably underestimates the appropriate transfer amounts because of conservative assumptions regarding the environmental values and the size of the north’s ecological debt in physical terms.     

Econometric Analysis of External Debt Burdens of African Countries: Debt Rescheduling and Arrears of Interest

Abstract: The study is an empirical investigation of reasons why African countries are unable to meet their external debt commitments during 1980s and immediately thereafter. It identifies the factors responsible for both temporal and cross-country variations in interest arrears on long-term debts as well as the proportions of debts being rescheduled. Annual data over 1980-90 period for 39 African countries are employed and possible effects of various factors like the existing debt overhang; composition of external debts; external trade performances; foreign reserves position; foreign capital inflows; interest rate on the debts; level and growth of income; and other domestic economic indicators are tested for and confirmed. (JEL: F34; 055). Résumé: Il s'agit d'une étude empirique des raisons pour lesquelles les pays africains n'ont pas pu honorer leurs obligations au titre de la dette extérieure, dans les anneées 80 et les années suivantes. Elle identifie les facteurs responsables des variations temporelles et internationales des arriérés d'intérêts au titre des dettes à long terme ainsi que du rééchelonnement des dettes. Les données annuelles qui ont été utilisées sont celles couvrant la période 1980-90 pour 39 pays africains et les effets éventuels des différents facteurs (tels que l'encours actuel de la dette; la composition des dettes extérieures; les performances du commerce extérieur; la position des réserves en devises; les entrées de capitaux étrangers; les taux d'intérêt appliqués sur les dettes; le niveau et la croissance du revenu; et d'autres indicateurs économiques intérieurs) ont été testés et confirmés.     

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth.     

对发展中国家外债风险管理的探讨

很多发展中国家都存有大量外债,由于汇率、利率的波动以及资产和负债期限的不匹配性,这些国家存在着严重的外债风险(汇率风险、利率风险和流动性风险),对他们的宏观经济政策和经济活动产生干扰。发展中国家应该通过建立独立的外债风险管理机构来有效管理这些风险,并运用成熟的风险管理技术和招聘具有相关经验和知识的人才来从事这些工作。这些风险工作不但需要风险管理工具,还需要有相关的机构。     

宏观审慎管理框架下的外债管理新变化

进入新世纪以来,我国外债增长平稳,总体运营安全,对于我国经济建设发展起到了积极作用。为适应新的要求,党的十八届三中全会提出"建立健全宏观审慎管理框架"的重要论述,指明了外债管理改革的新方向。本文首先对我国的外债基本情况进行了简述,分析了当前宏观审慎管理框架下外债管理的新变化,揭示了新形势下存在的问题,并就加强外债管理工作提出了应对措施,为保障企业在外债宏观审慎管理框架下顺利开展外债业务提供了思路。     

Government Debt and Economic Growth in an Overlapping Generations Model

Prior studies have shown that an increase in government debt raises the real interest rate and lowers the rate of economic growth. In an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth, this paper shows that an increase in government debt may not increase the real interest rate with the real interest rate being greater than the growth and that an introduction of government debt will increase the growth rate of per capita output if the growth rate is greater than the real interest rate and will decrease the growth rate if the growth rate is less than the real interest rate.     

Public Debt,Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies

We analyse the relationship between public debt, economic growth and inflation in a group of 52 African economies between 1950 and 2012. The results indicate that the limits of public debt are negatively related to economic growth and exhibit, from a given level of debt, an inverted U behaviour regarding the relationship between economic growth and public debt. Briefly, the high levels of public debt are coincident with reduced rates of economic growth and rising levels of inflation. Our results for three specific geographical areas resemble those of the overall analysis, despite some differences. In North African countries, the growth rates of the gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation also show an inverted U behaviour as the ratio of public debt/GDP increases. The highest rate of economic growth is recorded when the ratio of public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP and corresponds to an average inflation rate of 5.33%. An identical behaviour of the GDP growth rates and inflation also appears in Sub‐Saharan countries until the third interval (60–90%). However, the highest growth rate of the GDP and GDP per capita is registered when the public debt/GDP ratio is in the second interval (30–60%). For the countries of the Southern Africa Development Community, the highest average rate of economic growth (6.8%) is similar to North African countries, when the ratio public debt/GDP is below 30% of GDP, with an average inflation rate of 11%. A number of robustness analyses were performed and the great majority of them confirm the general analysis.     

地方政府债务膨胀形成的内在机理分析

地方政府债务膨胀是内因与外因相互交织并共同发挥作用的结果,而官员晋升锦标赛竞争机制使地方政府债务膨胀具有制度的内生性特征,主要体现在:一是官员晋升锦标赛与地方政府公司化;二是预算软约束与地方政府投资冲动;三是逆向预算软约束与土地财政金融化。地方政府债务膨胀一方面增加了地方政府对商业银行呆账、坏账的信用风险,影响到政府信用;另一方面,也可能会诱发潜在的金融风险和经济危机,影响到国民经济的健康运行。     

地方政府债务对经济增长的影响——基于债务规模与债务结构的双重视角

在提出测算地方政府隐性债务新方法的基础上,基于所测算的数据,从债务规模和债务结构的双重视角,全面分析地方政府债务对经济增长的影响。结果表明:就债务规模而言,当地方政府债务率相对较低时,增加债务有助于促进经济增长,但是当地方政府债务率相对较高时,进一步增加债务对经济增长的推动作用将会减弱。就债务结构而言,当地方政府的隐性债务占比过高时,地方政府债务的扩张会对经济增长产生更为显著的负向影响,这主要是因为隐性债务对民间投资的挤出作用更强。因此,防范与化解地方政府债务风险,不应采取"一刀切"的策略,而应从债务规模和债务结构两个视角综合考量,为各地量身打造防范与化解债务风险的最优策略。